King Exchange
Get ID now

FootballPremier League 2026/27

Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction, score and odds

50%Liverpool · fair 2.0026%Draw · fair 3.8524%Chelsea · fair 4.17
Kick-off
19:30 IST · 15:00 UK
Date
Sat, 01 May 2027
Venue
Anfield, Liverpool
UK broadcast
Not yet picked for UK TV
By King Exchange Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

The case

Who wins Liverpool vs Chelsea, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

Liverpool

  • 50% to win on the King Exchange goals model, a fair back price of 2.00.
  • 1.66 expected goals to 1.08: they should create the better chances.
  • Home advantage at Anfield, worth about three tenths of a goal.
  • A title-level squad that can change the game from the bench.

How they could upset it

Chelsea

  • 24% to win plus 26% for the draw: 50% that Liverpool do not win.
  • Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind.
  • An early goal would force Liverpool to chase.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Liverpool vs Chelsea?

The King Exchange goals model, run thousands of times.

  • Liverpool 50%, draw 26%, Chelsea 24%: a coin flip.
  • Projected score 2-1, with the goals line on a knife edge (2.7 xG).
  • Both teams to score: 54% on the King Exchange model.
Projected score
2-1
Half-time
0-0
Both score
54%
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.08
Chance of each goal total
012345+

Deciding factors

Which factors will settle this match?

Home advantage, expected goals and the factor carrying the most weight here.

  1. Home advantage

    Liverpool are both the stronger team and at home, which the model values at a little over a fifth of a goal. The two edges stack.

    Edge: Liverpool

  2. Expected goals

    With 2.7 expected goals, the 2.5 line is near 50/50 (51% for the over).

    Edge: Even

  3. Quality gap

    Liverpool rate clearly stronger and the draw is only 26%. If they score first, the game should follow.

    Edge: Liverpool

How to play it

How should you back or lay Liverpool vs Chelsea on King Exchange?

Fair prices for the pick and the outsider, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back50% chance

Liverpool2.00

Accept 2.00 or longer. A ₹100 back at 2.00 pays ₹200 including your stake.

Lay24% chance

Chelsea4.17

Lay only at 4.17 or shorter. At 4.17, a ₹100 lay puts ₹317 at risk to win ₹100.

Three ways to play it · risk rises left to right

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Draw no bet

    Back Liverpool

    67% chance1.49

    Your stake comes back if it finishes level, so only a Chelsea win loses.

  2. ValueBalanced

    Total goals

    Under 3.5

    71% chance1.41

    A tight contest is the likeliest outcome, and four or more goals would be unusual.

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Correct score

    Liverpool 2-1 Chelsea

    10% chance10.00

    The model's likeliest scoreline. Correct-score bets pay big but rarely land, so keep the stake light.

Team shape

How will the two teams set up?

Official line-ups are announced roughly an hour before kick-off.

At home

Liverpool

Liverpool are set up to control the ball. They should own most of the possession at Anfield and keep Chelsea penned in for long stretches.

Away

Chelsea

Chelsea carry a title-level squad. They suffocate opponents on the road at Anfield, so Liverpool will need a disciplined low block to stay in it.

What could change

What would change the King Exchange prediction?

Team news and match events that would move our numbers.

  1. If Liverpool field a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would take several points off their win chance. Line-ups drop an hour before kick-off.

  2. If Chelsea score first

    The favourite must chase, and both the draw and the upset become far more likely.

  3. If a red card arrives in the first hour

    Playing with ten men rewrites the expected-goals picture, whichever team it hits.

The long read

Liverpool vs Chelsea match preview

Chelsea travel to Anfield for a 2026/27 Premier League fixture that King Exchange grades as a coin flip. We project 1.66 xG for Liverpool and 1.08 for Chelsea. Over thousands of simulated games, Liverpool come out on top in 50% of them. An early goal would transform the game for Chelsea. Sides chasing a result leave space, and that is where upsets happen.

“Sides chasing a result leave space, and that is where upsets happen.”

Fixture timeline

Fixture timeline: Liverpool and Chelsea

Rest days and the next game for both clubs, taken from the official Premier League fixture list.

Liverpool play 7 days after their match away at Leeds on 24 Apr. Next they are away at Man City 7 days after this game. Premier League game 34 of 38.

Chelsea play 7 days after their match at home to Man City on 24 Apr. Next they are away at Spurs 7 days after this game. Premier League game 34 of 38.

The two clubs already met at Stamford Bridge on Sat, 05 Dec 2026, so this is the return fixture.

  1. 24 AprLeeds vs LiverpoolElland Road
  2. 24 AprChelsea vs Man CityStamford Bridge
  3. 01 May · this matchLiverpool vs ChelseaAnfield
  4. 08 MayMan City vs LiverpoolEtihad Stadium
  5. 08 MaySpurs vs ChelseaTottenham Hotspur Stadium

Keep reading

More KingExch predictions for Liverpool and Chelsea

Back or lay in-play

Trade this match on your KingExch ID.

One King Exchange ID covers cricket, football and tennis, with round-the-clock WhatsApp support in English and Hindi. Adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you play.

Get your ID on WhatsAppFull match schedule

FAQ · 10

Liverpool vs Chelsea FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

Need a quick answer? Message King Exchange support on WhatsApp

Who will win Liverpool vs Chelsea?

King Exchange expects Liverpool to win. The goals model rates Liverpool 50%, the draw 26% and Chelsea 24%, which we grade as a coin flip.

What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Chelsea?

Our projected score is 2-1, with 0-0 at half-time. The most frequent exact score across our simulations is 1-1, at 12%.

What are the fair odds for Liverpool vs Chelsea?

By our numbers: Liverpool 2.00, draw 3.85, Chelsea 4.17. Any back price shorter than that offers no value on the King Exchange model.

What time does Liverpool vs Chelsea kick off in India?

19:30 IST in India (UK date Sat, 01 May 2027, 15:00 UK time), at Anfield in Liverpool. Kick-offs can be moved for TV, so recheck nearer the day.

Why could Chelsea upset Liverpool in Liverpool vs Chelsea?

24% to win plus 26% for the draw: 50% that Liverpool do not win. Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind. An early goal would force Liverpool to chase.

How should I trade Liverpool vs Chelsea on King Exchange?

By King Exchange numbers, back Liverpool at 2.00 or longer, or lay Chelsea at 4.17 or shorter. A lay wins whenever Chelsea fail to win; at 4.17, a ₹100 lay carries ₹317 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Liverpool vs Chelsea match kaun jeetega?

King Exchange ke goals model mein Liverpool aage hain: Liverpool 50%, draw 26%, Chelsea 24%. Sabse sambhavit score 2-1 hai. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Is betting on the Premier League legal in India?

In India, online betting is governed by both central and state law, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money gaming. Check the rules that apply in your state before you play. This is general information rather than legal advice, and King Exchange is for adults aged 18 and over only.

Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Chelsea?

We rate both teams to score at 54%, so the lean is yes. Over 2.5 goals sits at 51%.

Can Chelsea cause an upset in Liverpool vs Chelsea?

Yes, with an early goal, a disciplined back line and an off day for Liverpool's attack. King Exchange gives Chelsea a 24% chance.

Dates and kick-offs follow the official Premier League fixture list and can change for TV or cup fixtures. The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the King Exchange model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

Check it at the source

Sources and official information

External sites open in a new tab. We aren't affiliated with them.