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FootballPremier League 2026/27

Aston Villa vs Hull City Prediction, score and odds

89%Aston Villa · fair 1.129%Draw · fair 11.112%Hull City · fair 50.00
Kick-off
20:30 IST · 15:00 UK
Date
Sat, 13 Mar 2027
Venue
Villa Park, Birmingham
UK broadcast
Not yet picked for UK TV
By King Exchange Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

The case

Who wins Villa vs Hull, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

Aston Villa

  • 89% to win on the King Exchange goals model, a fair back price of 1.12.
  • 3.14 expected goals to 0.39: they should create the better chances.
  • Home advantage at Villa Park, worth about three tenths of a goal.

How they could upset it

Hull City

  • 2% to win plus 9% for the draw: 11% that Villa do not win.
  • Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind.
  • Set pieces, the go-to weapon of a newly promoted side.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Villa vs Hull?

The King Exchange goals model, run thousands of times.

  • Villa 89%, draw 9%, Hull 2%: a strong lean.
  • Projected score 4-0, with goals expected (3.5 xG).
  • Both teams to score: 31% on the King Exchange model.
Projected score
4-0
Half-time
1-0
Both score
31%
Expected goals
3.14 – 0.39
Chance of each goal total
012345+

Deciding factors

Which factors will settle this match?

Home advantage, expected goals and the factor carrying the most weight here.

  1. Home advantage

    Villa are both the stronger team and at home, which the model values at a little over a fifth of a goal. The two edges stack.

    Edge: Villa

  2. Expected goals

    3.5 expected goals is above the league norm, and over 2.5 lands 68% of the time in our simulations.

    Edge: Goals

  3. Quality gap

    Villa rate clearly stronger and the draw is only 9%. If they score first, the game should follow.

    Edge: Villa

How to play it

How should you back or lay Villa vs Hull on King Exchange?

Fair prices for the pick and the outsider, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back89% chance

Aston Villa1.12

Accept 1.12 or longer. A ₹100 back at 1.12 pays ₹112 including your stake.

Lay2% chance

Hull City50.00

Lay only at 50.00 or shorter. At 50.00, a ₹100 lay puts ₹4900 at risk to win ₹100.

Three ways to play it · risk rises left to right

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Draw no bet

    Back Villa

    97% chance1.03

    Your stake comes back if it finishes level, so only a Hull win loses.

  2. ValueBalanced

    Total goals

    Over 2.5

    68% chance1.47

    3.5 expected goals clears the 2.5 line more often than not.

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Correct score

    Villa 4-0 Hull

    12% chance8.33

    The model's likeliest scoreline. Correct-score bets pay big but rarely land, so keep the stake light.

Team shape

How will the two teams set up?

Official line-ups are announced roughly an hour before kick-off.

At home

Aston Villa

Villa are organised and tough to break down, and they tend to earn results at Villa Park by controlling the middle of the pitch.

Away · promoted

Hull City

Hull are newly promoted and still getting used to the speed of the top flight. Look for a deep, compact block on the road at Villa Park, long periods without the ball and most of their danger from set pieces.

What could change

What would change the King Exchange prediction?

Team news and match events that would move our numbers.

  1. If Villa field a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would take several points off their win chance. Line-ups drop an hour before kick-off.

  2. If Hull score first

    The favourite must chase, and both the draw and the upset become far more likely.

  3. If a red card arrives in the first hour

    Playing with ten men rewrites the expected-goals picture, whichever team it hits.

The long read

Villa vs Hull match preview

Hull City travel to Villa Park for a 2026/27 Premier League fixture that King Exchange grades as a strong lean. We project 3.14 xG for Villa and 0.39 for Hull. Over thousands of simulated games, Villa come out on top in 89% of them. An early goal would transform the game for Hull. Sides chasing a result leave space, and that is where upsets happen.

“Sides chasing a result leave space, and that is where upsets happen.”

Fixture timeline

Fixture timeline: Villa and Hull

Rest days and the next game for both clubs, taken from the official Premier League fixture list.

Villa play 10 days after their match away at Liverpool on 03 Mar. Next they are away at Forest 7 days after this game. Premier League game 29 of 38.

Hull play 10 days after their match away at Leeds on 03 Mar. Next they are at home to Chelsea 7 days after this game. Premier League game 29 of 38.

The two clubs already met at MKM Stadium on Sat, 05 Sept 2026, so this is the return fixture.

  1. 03 MarLiverpool vs VillaAnfield
  2. 03 MarLeeds vs HullElland Road
  3. 13 Mar · this matchVilla vs HullVilla Park
  4. 20 MarForest vs VillaCity Ground
  5. 20 MarHull vs ChelseaMKM Stadium

Keep reading

More KingExch predictions for Villa and Hull

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FAQ · 10

Aston Villa vs Hull City FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

Need a quick answer? Message King Exchange support on WhatsApp

Who will win Villa vs Hull?

King Exchange expects Aston Villa to win. The goals model rates Villa 89%, the draw 9% and Hull 2%, which we grade as a strong lean.

What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Hull City?

Our projected score is 4-0, with 1-0 at half-time. The most frequent exact score across our simulations is 3-0, at 15%.

What are the fair odds for Villa vs Hull?

By our numbers: Villa 1.12, draw 11.11, Hull 50.00. Any back price shorter than that offers no value on the King Exchange model.

What time does Aston Villa vs Hull City kick off in India?

20:30 IST in India (UK date Sat, 13 Mar 2027, 15:00 UK time), at Villa Park in Birmingham. Kick-offs can be moved for TV, so recheck nearer the day.

Why could Hull upset Villa in Villa vs Hull?

2% to win plus 9% for the draw: 11% that Villa do not win. Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind. Set pieces, the go-to weapon of a newly promoted side.

How should I trade Villa vs Hull on King Exchange?

By King Exchange numbers, back Aston Villa at 1.12 or longer, or lay Hull City at 50.00 or shorter. A lay wins whenever Hull City fail to win; at 50.00, a ₹100 lay carries ₹4900 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Villa vs Hull match kaun jeetega?

King Exchange ke goals model mein Aston Villa aage hain: Villa 89%, draw 9%, Hull 2%. Sabse sambhavit score 4-0 hai. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Will both teams score in Villa vs Hull?

We rate both teams to score at 31%, so the lean is no. Over 2.5 goals sits at 68%.

Is betting on the Premier League legal in India?

In India, online betting is governed by both central and state law, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money gaming. Check the rules that apply in your state before you play. This is general information rather than legal advice, and King Exchange is for adults aged 18 and over only.

Can Hull cause an upset in Villa vs Hull?

Yes, with an early goal, a disciplined back line and an off day for Villa's attack. King Exchange gives Hull a 2% chance.

Dates and kick-offs follow the official Premier League fixture list and can change for TV or cup fixtures. The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the King Exchange model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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Sources and official information

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