King Exchange
Get ID now

FootballPremier League 2026/27

Everton vs AFC Bournemouth Prediction, score and odds

41%Everton · fair 2.4427%Draw · fair 3.7032%AFC Bournemouth · fair 3.13
Kick-off
19:30 IST · 15:00 UK
Date
Sat, 17 Apr 2027
Venue
Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool
UK broadcast
Not yet picked for UK TV
By King Exchange Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

The case

Who wins Everton vs Bournemouth, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

Everton

  • 41% to win on the King Exchange goals model, a fair back price of 2.44.
  • 1.47 expected goals to 1.27: they should create the better chances.
  • Home advantage at Hill Dickinson Stadium, worth about three tenths of a goal.

How they could upset it

AFC Bournemouth

  • 32% to win plus 27% for the draw: 59% that Everton do not win.
  • Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind.
  • An early goal would force Everton to chase.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Everton vs Bournemouth?

The King Exchange goals model, run thousands of times.

  • Everton 41%, draw 27%, Bournemouth 32%: a coin flip.
  • Projected score 2-1, with the goals line on a knife edge (2.7 xG).
  • Both teams to score: 55% on the King Exchange model.
Projected score
2-1
Half-time
0-0
Both score
55%
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.27
Chance of each goal total
012345+

Deciding factors

Which factors will settle this match?

Home advantage, expected goals and the factor carrying the most weight here.

  1. Home advantage

    Everton are both the stronger team and at home, which the model values at a little over a fifth of a goal. The two edges stack.

    Edge: Everton

  2. Expected goals

    With 2.7 expected goals, the 2.5 line is near 50/50 (51% for the over).

    Edge: Even

  3. Draw risk

    A 27% draw chance is high by Premier League standards, which is why our anchor bet protects against the draw instead of backing a straight win.

    Edge: Draw

How to play it

How should you back or lay Everton vs Bournemouth on King Exchange?

Fair prices for the pick and the outsider, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back41% chance

Everton2.44

Accept 2.44 or longer. A ₹100 back at 2.44 pays ₹244 including your stake.

Lay32% chance

AFC Bournemouth3.13

Lay only at 3.13 or shorter. At 3.13, a ₹100 lay puts ₹213 at risk to win ₹100.

Three ways to play it · risk rises left to right

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Double chance

    Everton or draw

    68% chance1.47

    Covers two of the three outcomes. Only a Bournemouth win loses.

  2. ValueBalanced

    Both teams to score

    Yes

    55% chance1.82

    Each side projects above one expected goal, and both teams score 55% of the time in our simulations.

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Correct score

    Everton 2-1 Bournemouth

    9% chance11.11

    The model's likeliest scoreline. Correct-score bets pay big but rarely land, so keep the stake light.

Team shape

How will the two teams set up?

Official line-ups are announced roughly an hour before kick-off.

At home

Everton

Everton are a pragmatic mid-table team: sturdy out of possession at Hill Dickinson Stadium, but short of the creativity to dictate a game.

Away

AFC Bournemouth

Bournemouth are likely to sit in a compact shape on the road at Hill Dickinson Stadium and wait for a single opening rather than chase control.

What could change

What would change the King Exchange prediction?

Team news and match events that would move our numbers.

  1. If Everton field a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would take several points off their win chance. Line-ups drop an hour before kick-off.

  2. If Bournemouth score first

    The favourite must chase, and both the draw and the upset become far more likely.

  3. If a red card arrives in the first hour

    Playing with ten men rewrites the expected-goals picture, whichever team it hits.

The long read

Everton vs Bournemouth match preview

Everton welcome AFC Bournemouth in front of a home crowd, and the King Exchange numbers tilt toward Everton. The expected-goals split (1.47 for Everton, 1.27 for Bournemouth) is the strongest signal, and it drives our 41% for Everton. Bournemouth's best hope is to keep it level going into the final 30 minutes, when a draw becomes very live.

“Bournemouth's best hope is to keep it level going into the final 30 minutes, when a draw becomes very live.”

Fixture timeline

Fixture timeline: Everton and Bournemouth

Rest days and the next game for both clubs, taken from the official Premier League fixture list.

Everton play 7 days after their match away at Palace on 10 Apr. Next they are at home to Brighton 7 days after this game. Premier League game 32 of 38.

Bournemouth play 7 days after their match at home to Man City on 10 Apr. Next they are at home to Arsenal 7 days after this game. Premier League game 32 of 38.

The two clubs already met at Vitality Stadium on Sat, 29 Aug 2026, so this is the return fixture.

  1. 10 AprPalace vs EvertonSelhurst Park
  2. 10 AprBournemouth vs Man CityVitality Stadium
  3. 17 Apr · this matchEverton vs BournemouthHill Dickinson Stadium
  4. 24 AprEverton vs BrightonHill Dickinson Stadium
  5. 24 AprBournemouth vs ArsenalVitality Stadium

Keep reading

More KingExch predictions for Everton and Bournemouth

Back or lay in-play

Trade this match on your KingExch ID.

One King Exchange ID covers cricket, football and tennis, with round-the-clock WhatsApp support in English and Hindi. Adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you play.

Get your ID on WhatsAppFull match schedule

FAQ · 10

Everton vs AFC Bournemouth FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

Need a quick answer? Message King Exchange support on WhatsApp

Who will win Everton vs Bournemouth?

King Exchange expects Everton to win. The goals model rates Everton 41%, the draw 27% and Bournemouth 32%, which we grade as a coin flip.

What is the predicted score for Everton vs AFC Bournemouth?

Our projected score is 2-1, with 0-0 at half-time. The most frequent exact score across our simulations is 1-1, at 13%.

What are the fair odds for Everton vs Bournemouth?

By our numbers: Everton 2.44, draw 3.70, Bournemouth 3.13. Any back price shorter than that offers no value on the King Exchange model.

What time does Everton vs AFC Bournemouth kick off in India?

19:30 IST in India (UK date Sat, 17 Apr 2027, 15:00 UK time), at Hill Dickinson Stadium in Liverpool. Kick-offs can be moved for TV, so recheck nearer the day.

Why could Bournemouth upset Everton in Everton vs Bournemouth?

32% to win plus 27% for the draw: 59% that Everton do not win. Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind. An early goal would force Everton to chase.

How should I trade Everton vs Bournemouth on King Exchange?

By King Exchange numbers, back Everton at 2.44 or longer, or lay AFC Bournemouth at 3.13 or shorter. A lay wins whenever AFC Bournemouth fail to win; at 3.13, a ₹100 lay carries ₹213 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Everton vs Bournemouth match kaun jeetega?

King Exchange ke goals model mein Everton aage hain: Everton 41%, draw 27%, Bournemouth 32%. Sabse sambhavit score 2-1 hai. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Will both teams score in Everton vs Bournemouth?

We rate both teams to score at 55%, so the lean is yes. Over 2.5 goals sits at 51%.

Can Bournemouth cause an upset in Everton vs Bournemouth?

Yes, with an early goal, a disciplined back line and an off day for Everton's attack. King Exchange gives Bournemouth a 32% chance.

How many goals are expected in Everton vs Bournemouth?

2.7 expected goals in all. The likeliest goal count is 2, and a 0-0 shows up 7% of the time.

Dates and kick-offs follow the official Premier League fixture list and can change for TV or cup fixtures. The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the King Exchange model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

Check it at the source

Sources and official information

External sites open in a new tab. We aren't affiliated with them.