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FootballPremier League 2026/27

Everton vs Arsenal Prediction, score and odds

17%Everton · fair 5.8822%Draw · fair 4.5561%Arsenal · fair 1.64
Kick-off
19:30 IST · 15:00 UK
Date
Sun, 23 May 2027
Venue
Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool
UK broadcast
Not yet picked for UK TV
By King Exchange Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

The case

Who wins Everton vs Arsenal, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

Arsenal

  • 61% to win on the King Exchange goals model, a fair back price of 1.64.
  • 2.01 expected goals to 0.94: they should create the better chances.
  • Enough extra quality to overcome a trip to Hill Dickinson Stadium.
  • A title-level squad that can change the game from the bench.

How they could upset it

Everton

  • 17% to win plus 22% for the draw: 39% that Arsenal do not win.
  • The home crowd at Hill Dickinson Stadium is behind them.
  • An early goal would force Arsenal to chase.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Everton vs Arsenal?

The King Exchange goals model, run thousands of times.

  • Arsenal 61%, draw 22%, Everton 17%: a clear lean.
  • Projected score 1-2, with goals expected (2.9 xG).
  • Both teams to score: 53% on the King Exchange model.
Projected score
1-2
Half-time
0-0
Both score
53%
Expected goals
0.94 – 2.01
Chance of each goal total
012345+

Deciding factors

Which factors will settle this match?

Home advantage, expected goals and the factor carrying the most weight here.

  1. Home advantage

    Home support is worth about a fifth of a goal to Everton. It closes the gap but does not erase Arsenal's extra quality.

    Edge: Even

  2. Expected goals

    2.9 expected goals is above the league norm, and over 2.5 lands 56% of the time in our simulations.

    Edge: Goals

  3. Quality gap

    Arsenal rate clearly stronger and the draw is only 22%. If they score first, the game should follow.

    Edge: Arsenal

How to play it

How should you back or lay Everton vs Arsenal on King Exchange?

Fair prices for the pick and the outsider, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back61% chance

Arsenal1.64

Accept 1.64 or longer. A ₹100 back at 1.64 pays ₹164 including your stake.

Lay17% chance

Everton5.88

Lay only at 5.88 or shorter. At 5.88, a ₹100 lay puts ₹488 at risk to win ₹100.

Three ways to play it · risk rises left to right

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Draw no bet

    Back Arsenal

    79% chance1.27

    Your stake comes back if it finishes level, so only a Everton win loses.

  2. ValueBalanced

    Total goals

    Over 2.5

    56% chance1.79

    2.9 expected goals clears the 2.5 line more often than not.

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Correct score

    Everton 1-2 Arsenal

    10% chance10.00

    The model's likeliest scoreline. Correct-score bets pay big but rarely land, so keep the stake light.

Team shape

How will the two teams set up?

Official line-ups are announced roughly an hour before kick-off.

At home

Everton

Everton are likely to sit in a compact shape at Hill Dickinson Stadium and wait for a single opening rather than chase control.

Away

Arsenal

Arsenal are set up to control the ball. They should own most of the possession on the road at Hill Dickinson Stadium and keep Everton penned in for long stretches.

What could change

What would change the King Exchange prediction?

Team news and match events that would move our numbers.

  1. If Arsenal field a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would take several points off their win chance. Line-ups drop an hour before kick-off.

  2. If Everton score first

    The favourite must chase, and both the draw and the upset become far more likely.

  3. If a red card arrives in the first hour

    Playing with ten men rewrites the expected-goals picture, whichever team it hits.

The long read

Everton vs Arsenal match preview

Arsenal travel to Hill Dickinson Stadium for a 2026/27 Premier League fixture that King Exchange grades as a clear lean. We project 0.94 xG for Everton and 2.01 for Arsenal. Over thousands of simulated games, Arsenal come out on top in 61% of them. An early goal would transform the game for Everton. Sides chasing a result leave space, and that is where upsets happen.

“Sides chasing a result leave space, and that is where upsets happen.”

Fixture timeline

Fixture timeline: Everton and Arsenal

Rest days and the next game for both clubs, taken from the official Premier League fixture list.

Everton play 8 days after their match away at Chelsea on 15 May. Next they are away at Ipswich 7 days after this game. Premier League game 37 of 38.

Arsenal play 8 days after their match at home to Forest on 15 May. Next they are at home to Brighton 7 days after this game. Premier League game 37 of 38.

The two clubs already met at Emirates Stadium on Sat, 24 Oct 2026, so this is the return fixture.

  1. 15 MayChelsea vs EvertonStamford Bridge
  2. 15 MayArsenal vs ForestEmirates Stadium
  3. 23 May · this matchEverton vs ArsenalHill Dickinson Stadium
  4. 30 MayIpswich vs EvertonPortman Road
  5. 30 MayArsenal vs BrightonEmirates Stadium

Keep reading

More KingExch predictions for Everton and Arsenal

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FAQ · 10

Everton vs Arsenal FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

Need a quick answer? Message King Exchange support on WhatsApp

Who will win Everton vs Arsenal?

King Exchange expects Arsenal to win. The goals model rates Everton 17%, the draw 22% and Arsenal 61%, which we grade as a clear lean.

What is the predicted score for Everton vs Arsenal?

Our projected score is 1-2, with 0-0 at half-time. The most frequent exact score across our simulations is 1-1, at 11%.

What are the fair odds for Everton vs Arsenal?

By our numbers: Everton 5.88, draw 4.55, Arsenal 1.64. Any back price shorter than that offers no value on the King Exchange model.

What time does Everton vs Arsenal kick off in India?

19:30 IST in India (UK date Sun, 23 May 2027, 15:00 UK time), at Hill Dickinson Stadium in Liverpool. Kick-offs can be moved for TV, so recheck nearer the day.

Why could Everton upset Arsenal in Everton vs Arsenal?

17% to win plus 22% for the draw: 39% that Arsenal do not win. The home crowd at Hill Dickinson Stadium is behind them. An early goal would force Arsenal to chase.

How should I trade Everton vs Arsenal on King Exchange?

By King Exchange numbers, back Arsenal at 1.64 or longer, or lay Everton at 5.88 or shorter. A lay wins whenever Everton fail to win; at 5.88, a ₹100 lay carries ₹488 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Everton vs Arsenal match kaun jeetega?

King Exchange ke goals model mein Arsenal aage hain: Everton 17%, draw 22%, Arsenal 61%. Sabse sambhavit score 1-2 hai. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Will both teams score in Everton vs Arsenal?

We rate both teams to score at 53%, so the lean is yes. Over 2.5 goals sits at 56%.

Where can I watch Everton vs Arsenal?

Indian broadcast rights change from season to season, so check the official Premier League listings closer to the day.

Can Everton cause an upset in Everton vs Arsenal?

Yes, with an early goal, a disciplined back line and an off day for Arsenal's attack. King Exchange gives Everton a 17% chance.

Dates and kick-offs follow the official Premier League fixture list and can change for TV or cup fixtures. The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the King Exchange model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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Sources and official information

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