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FootballPremier League · Tyne-Wear derby

Newcastle United vs Sunderland Prediction, score and odds

56%Newcastle United · fair 1.7926%Draw · fair 3.8518%Sunderland · fair 5.56
Kick-off
20:30 IST · 15:00 UK
Date
Sat, 05 Dec 2026
Venue
St James' Park, Newcastle
UK broadcast
Not yet picked for UK TV
By King Exchange Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

The case

Who wins Newcastle vs Sunderland, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

Newcastle United

  • 56% to win on the King Exchange goals model, a fair back price of 1.79.
  • 1.65 expected goals to 0.82: they should create the better chances.
  • Home advantage at St James' Park, worth about three tenths of a goal.

How they could upset it

Sunderland

  • 18% to win plus 26% for the draw: 44% that Newcastle do not win.
  • Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind.
  • It is the Tyne-Wear derby, where form often counts for little.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Newcastle vs Sunderland?

The King Exchange goals model, run thousands of times.

  • Newcastle 56%, draw 26%, Sunderland 18%: a clear lean.
  • Projected score 2-0, with a tight, low-scoring game likely (2.5 xG).
  • It is the Tyne-Wear derby, so expect more bookings and fewer clear-cut chances.
Projected score
2-0
Half-time
0-0
Both score
45%
Expected goals
1.65 – 0.82
Chance of each goal total
012345+

Deciding factors

Which factors will settle this match?

Home advantage, expected goals and the factor carrying the most weight here.

  1. Home advantage

    Newcastle are both the stronger team and at home, which the model values at a little over a fifth of a goal. The two edges stack.

    Edge: Newcastle

  2. Expected goals

    At just 2.5 expected goals, the under is the natural lean, with over 2.5 landing only 44% of the time.

    Edge: Few goals

  3. Derby intensity

    The Tyne-Wear derby brings added edge, more fouls and a projected 4.5-5.5 cards. Derbies regularly finish tighter than the table suggests.

    Edge: Draw

How to play it

How should you back or lay Newcastle vs Sunderland on King Exchange?

Fair prices for the pick and the outsider, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back56% chance

Newcastle United1.79

Accept 1.79 or longer. A ₹100 back at 1.79 pays ₹179 including your stake.

Lay18% chance

Sunderland5.56

Lay only at 5.56 or shorter. At 5.56, a ₹100 lay puts ₹456 at risk to win ₹100.

Three ways to play it · risk rises left to right

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Draw no bet

    Back Newcastle

    76% chance1.32

    Your stake comes back if it finishes level, so only a Sunderland win loses.

  2. ValueBalanced

    Total goals

    Under 3.5

    77% chance1.30

    A tight contest is the likeliest outcome, and four or more goals would be unusual.

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Correct score

    Newcastle 2-0 Sunderland

    11% chance9.09

    The model's likeliest scoreline. Correct-score bets pay big but rarely land, so keep the stake light.

Team shape

How will the two teams set up?

Official line-ups are announced roughly an hour before kick-off.

At home

Newcastle United

Newcastle are well coached, with enough cutting edge to punish errors at St James' Park. Their game is built on winning the midfield.

Away

Sunderland

Sunderland are likely to sit in a compact shape on the road at St James' Park and wait for a single opening rather than chase control.

What could change

What would change the King Exchange prediction?

Team news and match events that would move our numbers.

  1. If Newcastle field a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would take several points off their win chance. Line-ups drop an hour before kick-off.

  2. If Sunderland score first

    The favourite must chase, and both the draw and the upset become far more likely.

  3. If a red card arrives in the first hour

    Playing with ten men rewrites the expected-goals picture, whichever team it hits.

The long read

Newcastle vs Sunderland match preview

Newcastle United welcome Sunderland in front of a home crowd, and the King Exchange numbers tilt toward Newcastle. As the Tyne-Wear derby, form matters less than usual, so we have pulled the two sides closer together. The expected-goals split (1.65 for Newcastle, 0.82 for Sunderland) is the strongest signal, and it drives our 56% for Newcastle. Sunderland's best hope is to keep it level going into the final 30 minutes, when a draw becomes very live.

“Sunderland's best hope is to keep it level going into the final 30 minutes, when a draw becomes very live.”

Fixture timeline

Fixture timeline: Newcastle and Sunderland

Rest days and the next game for both clubs, taken from the official Premier League fixture list.

Newcastle play 3 days after their match at home to Man Utd on 02 Dec, so fatigue could tell in the closing stages. Next they are away at Ipswich 7 days after this game. Premier League game 14 of 38.

Sunderland play 3 days after their match away at Liverpool on 02 Dec, so fatigue could tell in the closing stages. Next they are at home to Forest 7 days after this game. Premier League game 14 of 38.

They meet again at Stadium of Light on Sat, 01 May 2027, making this the first of their two league meetings.

  1. 02 DecNewcastle vs Man UtdSt James' Park
  2. 02 DecLiverpool vs SunderlandAnfield
  3. 05 Dec · this matchNewcastle vs SunderlandSt James' Park
  4. 12 DecIpswich vs NewcastlePortman Road
  5. 12 DecSunderland vs ForestStadium of Light

Keep reading

More KingExch predictions for Newcastle and Sunderland

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FAQ · 10

Newcastle United vs Sunderland FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

Need a quick answer? Message King Exchange support on WhatsApp

Who will win Newcastle vs Sunderland?

King Exchange expects Newcastle United to win. The goals model rates Newcastle 56%, the draw 26% and Sunderland 18%, which we grade as a clear lean.

What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Sunderland?

Our projected score is 2-0, with 0-0 at half-time. The most frequent exact score across our simulations is 1-0, at 13%.

What are the fair odds for Newcastle vs Sunderland?

By our numbers: Newcastle 1.79, draw 3.85, Sunderland 5.56. Any back price shorter than that offers no value on the King Exchange model.

What time does Newcastle United vs Sunderland kick off in India?

20:30 IST in India (UK date Sat, 05 Dec 2026, 15:00 UK time), at St James' Park in Newcastle. Kick-offs can be moved for TV, so recheck nearer the day.

Why could Sunderland upset Newcastle in Newcastle vs Sunderland?

18% to win plus 26% for the draw: 44% that Newcastle do not win. Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind. It is the Tyne-Wear derby, where form often counts for little.

How should I trade Newcastle vs Sunderland on King Exchange?

By King Exchange numbers, back Newcastle United at 1.79 or longer, or lay Sunderland at 5.56 or shorter. A lay wins whenever Sunderland fail to win; at 5.56, a ₹100 lay carries ₹456 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Newcastle vs Sunderland match kaun jeetega?

King Exchange ke goals model mein Newcastle United aage hain: Newcastle 56%, draw 26%, Sunderland 18%. Sabse sambhavit score 2-0 hai. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Is betting on the Premier League legal in India?

In India, online betting is governed by both central and state law, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money gaming. Check the rules that apply in your state before you play. This is general information rather than legal advice, and King Exchange is for adults aged 18 and over only.

Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Sunderland?

We rate both teams to score at 45%, so the lean is no. Over 2.5 goals sits at 44%.

Where can I watch Newcastle vs Sunderland?

Indian broadcast rights change from season to season, so check the official Premier League listings closer to the day.

Dates and kick-offs follow the official Premier League fixture list and can change for TV or cup fixtures. The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the King Exchange model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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Sources and official information

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