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FootballPremier League 2026/27

Liverpool vs Sunderland Prediction, score and odds

74%Liverpool · fair 1.3517%Draw · fair 5.889%Sunderland · fair 11.11
Kick-off
01:30 IST, next day · 20:00 UK
Date
Wed, 02 Dec 2026
Venue
Anfield, Liverpool
UK broadcast
Not yet picked for UK TV
By King Exchange Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

The case

Who wins Liverpool vs Sunderland, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

Liverpool

  • 74% to win on the King Exchange goals model, a fair back price of 1.35.
  • 2.48 expected goals to 0.76: they should create the better chances.
  • Home advantage at Anfield, worth about three tenths of a goal.
  • A title-level squad that can change the game from the bench.

How they could upset it

Sunderland

  • 9% to win plus 17% for the draw: 26% that Liverpool do not win.
  • Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind.
  • An early goal would force Liverpool to chase.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Liverpool vs Sunderland?

The King Exchange goals model, run thousands of times.

  • Liverpool 74%, draw 17%, Sunderland 9%: a strong lean.
  • Projected score 3-0, with goals expected (3.2 xG).
  • Both teams to score: 49% on the King Exchange model.
Projected score
3-0
Half-time
0-0
Both score
49%
Expected goals
2.48 – 0.76
Chance of each goal total
012345+

Deciding factors

Which factors will settle this match?

Home advantage, expected goals and the factor carrying the most weight here.

  1. Home advantage

    Liverpool are both the stronger team and at home, which the model values at a little over a fifth of a goal. The two edges stack.

    Edge: Liverpool

  2. Expected goals

    3.2 expected goals is above the league norm, and over 2.5 lands 63% of the time in our simulations.

    Edge: Goals

  3. Quality gap

    Liverpool rate clearly stronger and the draw is only 17%. If they score first, the game should follow.

    Edge: Liverpool

How to play it

How should you back or lay Liverpool vs Sunderland on King Exchange?

Fair prices for the pick and the outsider, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back74% chance

Liverpool1.35

Accept 1.35 or longer. A ₹100 back at 1.35 pays ₹135 including your stake.

Lay9% chance

Sunderland11.11

Lay only at 11.11 or shorter. At 11.11, a ₹100 lay puts ₹1011 at risk to win ₹100.

Three ways to play it · risk rises left to right

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Draw no bet

    Back Liverpool

    89% chance1.12

    Your stake comes back if it finishes level, so only a Sunderland win loses.

  2. ValueBalanced

    Total goals

    Over 2.5

    63% chance1.59

    3.2 expected goals clears the 2.5 line more often than not.

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Correct score

    Liverpool 3-0 Sunderland

    10% chance10.00

    The model's likeliest scoreline. Correct-score bets pay big but rarely land, so keep the stake light.

Team shape

How will the two teams set up?

Official line-ups are announced roughly an hour before kick-off.

At home

Liverpool

Liverpool carry a title-level squad. They suffocate opponents at Anfield, so Sunderland will need a disciplined low block to stay in it.

Away

Sunderland

Sunderland are likely to sit in a compact shape on the road at Anfield and wait for a single opening rather than chase control.

What could change

What would change the King Exchange prediction?

Team news and match events that would move our numbers.

  1. If Liverpool field a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would take several points off their win chance. Line-ups drop an hour before kick-off.

  2. If Sunderland score first

    The favourite must chase, and both the draw and the upset become far more likely.

  3. If a red card arrives in the first hour

    Playing with ten men rewrites the expected-goals picture, whichever team it hits.

The long read

Liverpool vs Sunderland match preview

Liverpool welcome Sunderland in front of a home crowd, and the King Exchange numbers tilt toward Liverpool. The expected-goals split (2.48 for Liverpool, 0.76 for Sunderland) is the strongest signal, and it drives our 74% for Liverpool. Sunderland's best hope is to keep it level going into the final 30 minutes, when a draw becomes very live.

“Sunderland's best hope is to keep it level going into the final 30 minutes, when a draw becomes very live.”

Fixture timeline

Fixture timeline: Liverpool and Sunderland

Rest days and the next game for both clubs, taken from the official Premier League fixture list.

Liverpool play 3 days after their match away at Everton on 29 Nov, so fatigue could tell in the closing stages. Next they are away at Chelsea 3 days after this game, so expect some rotation. Premier League game 13 of 38.

Sunderland play 3 days after their match at home to Spurs on 29 Nov, so fatigue could tell in the closing stages. Next they are away at Newcastle 3 days after this game, so expect some rotation. Premier League game 13 of 38.

They meet again at Stadium of Light on Tue, 05 Jan 2027, making this the first of their two league meetings.

  1. 29 NovEverton vs LiverpoolHill Dickinson Stadium
  2. 29 NovSunderland vs SpursStadium of Light
  3. 02 Dec · this matchLiverpool vs SunderlandAnfield
  4. 05 DecChelsea vs LiverpoolStamford Bridge
  5. 05 DecNewcastle vs SunderlandSt James' Park

Keep reading

More KingExch predictions for Liverpool and Sunderland

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FAQ · 10

Liverpool vs Sunderland FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

Need a quick answer? Message King Exchange support on WhatsApp

Who will win Liverpool vs Sunderland?

King Exchange expects Liverpool to win. The goals model rates Liverpool 74%, the draw 17% and Sunderland 9%, which we grade as a strong lean.

What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Sunderland?

Our projected score is 3-0, with 0-0 at half-time. The most frequent exact score across our simulations is 2-0, at 12%.

What are the fair odds for Liverpool vs Sunderland?

By our numbers: Liverpool 1.35, draw 5.88, Sunderland 11.11. Any back price shorter than that offers no value on the King Exchange model.

What time does Liverpool vs Sunderland kick off in India?

01:30 IST, next day in India (UK date Wed, 02 Dec 2026, 20:00 UK time), at Anfield in Liverpool. Kick-offs can be moved for TV, so recheck nearer the day.

Why could Sunderland upset Liverpool in Liverpool vs Sunderland?

9% to win plus 17% for the draw: 26% that Liverpool do not win. Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind. An early goal would force Liverpool to chase.

How should I trade Liverpool vs Sunderland on King Exchange?

By King Exchange numbers, back Liverpool at 1.35 or longer, or lay Sunderland at 11.11 or shorter. A lay wins whenever Sunderland fail to win; at 11.11, a ₹100 lay carries ₹1011 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Liverpool vs Sunderland match kaun jeetega?

King Exchange ke goals model mein Liverpool aage hain: Liverpool 74%, draw 17%, Sunderland 9%. Sabse sambhavit score 3-0 hai. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Sunderland?

We rate both teams to score at 49%, so the lean is no. Over 2.5 goals sits at 63%.

Can Sunderland cause an upset in Liverpool vs Sunderland?

Yes, with an early goal, a disciplined back line and an off day for Liverpool's attack. King Exchange gives Sunderland a 9% chance.

Is betting on the Premier League legal in India?

In India, online betting is governed by both central and state law, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money gaming. Check the rules that apply in your state before you play. This is general information rather than legal advice, and King Exchange is for adults aged 18 and over only.

Dates and kick-offs follow the official Premier League fixture list and can change for TV or cup fixtures. The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the King Exchange model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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Sources and official information

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