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FootballPremier League · Merseyside derby

Everton vs Liverpool Prediction, score and odds

27%Everton · fair 3.7029%Draw · fair 3.4544%Liverpool · fair 2.27
Kick-off
17:30 IST · 12:00 UK
Date
Sun, 29 Nov 2026
Venue
Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool
UK broadcast
TNT Sports
By King Exchange Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

The case

Who wins Everton vs Liverpool, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

Liverpool

  • 44% to win on the King Exchange goals model, a fair back price of 2.27.
  • 1.37 expected goals to 1.02: they should create the better chances.
  • Enough extra quality to overcome a trip to Hill Dickinson Stadium.
  • A title-level squad that can change the game from the bench.

How they could upset it

Everton

  • 27% to win plus 29% for the draw: 56% that Liverpool do not win.
  • The home crowd at Hill Dickinson Stadium is behind them.
  • It is the Merseyside derby, where form often counts for little.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Everton vs Liverpool?

The King Exchange goals model, run thousands of times.

  • Liverpool 44%, draw 29%, Everton 27%: a coin flip.
  • Projected score 0-2, with a tight, low-scoring game likely (2.4 xG).
  • It is the Merseyside derby, so expect more bookings and fewer clear-cut chances.
Projected score
0-2
Half-time
0-0
Both score
48%
Expected goals
1.02 – 1.37
Chance of each goal total
012345+

Deciding factors

Which factors will settle this match?

Home advantage, expected goals and the factor carrying the most weight here.

  1. Home advantage

    Home support is worth about a fifth of a goal to Everton. It closes the gap but does not erase Liverpool's extra quality.

    Edge: Even

  2. Expected goals

    At just 2.4 expected goals, the under is the natural lean, with over 2.5 landing only 43% of the time.

    Edge: Few goals

  3. Derby intensity

    The Merseyside derby brings added edge, more fouls and a projected 4.5-5.5 cards. Derbies regularly finish tighter than the table suggests.

    Edge: Draw

How to play it

How should you back or lay Everton vs Liverpool on King Exchange?

Fair prices for the pick and the outsider, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back44% chance

Liverpool2.27

Accept 2.27 or longer. A ₹100 back at 2.27 pays ₹227 including your stake.

Lay27% chance

Everton3.70

Lay only at 3.70 or shorter. At 3.70, a ₹100 lay puts ₹270 at risk to win ₹100.

Three ways to play it · risk rises left to right

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Double chance

    Liverpool or draw

    73% chance1.37

    Covers two of the three outcomes. Only a Everton win loses.

  2. ValueBalanced

    Total goals

    Under 3.5

    78% chance1.28

    A tight contest is the likeliest outcome, and four or more goals would be unusual.

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Correct score

    Everton 0-2 Liverpool

    9% chance11.11

    The model's likeliest scoreline. Correct-score bets pay big but rarely land, so keep the stake light.

Team shape

How will the two teams set up?

Official line-ups are announced roughly an hour before kick-off.

At home

Everton

Everton are likely to sit in a compact shape at Hill Dickinson Stadium and wait for a single opening rather than chase control.

Away

Liverpool

Liverpool are set up to control the ball. They should own most of the possession on the road at Hill Dickinson Stadium and keep Everton penned in for long stretches.

What could change

What would change the King Exchange prediction?

Team news and match events that would move our numbers.

  1. If Liverpool field a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would take several points off their win chance. Line-ups drop an hour before kick-off.

  2. If Everton score first

    The favourite must chase, and both the draw and the upset become far more likely.

  3. If a red card arrives in the first hour

    Playing with ten men rewrites the expected-goals picture, whichever team it hits.

The long read

Everton vs Liverpool match preview

Liverpool travel to Hill Dickinson Stadium for a 2026/27 Premier League fixture that King Exchange grades as a coin flip. As the Merseyside derby, form matters less than usual, so we have pulled the two sides closer together. We project 1.02 xG for Everton and 1.37 for Liverpool. Over thousands of simulated games, Liverpool come out on top in 44% of them. An early goal would transform the game for Everton. Sides chasing a result leave space, and that is where upsets happen.

“Sides chasing a result leave space, and that is where upsets happen.”

Fixture timeline

Fixture timeline: Everton and Liverpool

Rest days and the next game for both clubs, taken from the official Premier League fixture list.

Everton play 6 days after their match away at Brentford on 23 Nov. Next they are away at Villa 3 days after this game, so expect some rotation. Premier League game 12 of 38.

Liverpool play 7 days after their match at home to Man Utd on 22 Nov. Next they are at home to Sunderland 3 days after this game, so expect some rotation. Premier League game 12 of 38.

They meet again at Anfield on Sat, 30 Jan 2027, making this the first of their two league meetings. Shown in the UK on TNT Sports.

  1. 22 NovLiverpool vs Man UtdAnfield
  2. 23 NovBrentford vs EvertonGtech Community Stadium
  3. 29 Nov · this matchEverton vs LiverpoolHill Dickinson Stadium
  4. 02 DecVilla vs EvertonVilla Park
  5. 02 DecLiverpool vs SunderlandAnfield

Keep reading

More KingExch predictions for Everton and Liverpool

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FAQ · 10

Everton vs Liverpool FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

Need a quick answer? Message King Exchange support on WhatsApp

Who will win Everton vs Liverpool?

King Exchange expects Liverpool to win. The goals model rates Everton 27%, the draw 29% and Liverpool 44%, which we grade as a coin flip.

What is the predicted score for Everton vs Liverpool?

Our projected score is 0-2, with 0-0 at half-time. The most frequent exact score across our simulations is 1-1, at 14%.

What are the fair odds for Everton vs Liverpool?

By our numbers: Everton 3.70, draw 3.45, Liverpool 2.27. Any back price shorter than that offers no value on the King Exchange model.

What time does Everton vs Liverpool kick off in India?

17:30 IST in India (UK date Sun, 29 Nov 2026, 12:00 UK time), at Hill Dickinson Stadium in Liverpool. Kick-offs can be moved for TV, so recheck nearer the day.

Why could Everton upset Liverpool in Everton vs Liverpool?

27% to win plus 29% for the draw: 56% that Liverpool do not win. The home crowd at Hill Dickinson Stadium is behind them. It is the Merseyside derby, where form often counts for little.

How should I trade Everton vs Liverpool on King Exchange?

By King Exchange numbers, back Liverpool at 2.27 or longer, or lay Everton at 3.70 or shorter. A lay wins whenever Everton fail to win; at 3.70, a ₹100 lay carries ₹270 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Everton vs Liverpool match kaun jeetega?

King Exchange ke goals model mein Liverpool aage hain: Everton 27%, draw 29%, Liverpool 44%. Sabse sambhavit score 0-2 hai. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

How many goals are expected in Everton vs Liverpool?

2.4 expected goals in all. The likeliest goal count is 2, and a 0-0 shows up 10% of the time.

Will both teams score in Everton vs Liverpool?

We rate both teams to score at 48%, so the lean is no. Over 2.5 goals sits at 43%.

Where can I watch Everton vs Liverpool?

UK viewers can watch on TNT Sports. Indian broadcast rights change from season to season, so check the official Premier League listings closer to the day.

Dates and kick-offs follow the official Premier League fixture list and can change for TV or cup fixtures. The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the King Exchange model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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Sources and official information

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