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FootballPremier League · Merseyside derby

Liverpool vs Everton Prediction, score and odds

68%Liverpool · fair 1.4721%Draw · fair 4.7611%Everton · fair 9.09
Kick-off
20:30 IST · 15:00 UK
Date
Sat, 30 Jan 2027
Venue
Anfield, Liverpool
UK broadcast
Not yet picked for UK TV
By King Exchange Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

The case

Who wins Liverpool vs Everton, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

Liverpool

  • 68% to win on the King Exchange goals model, a fair back price of 1.47.
  • 1.97 expected goals to 0.64: they should create the better chances.
  • Home advantage at Anfield, worth about three tenths of a goal.
  • A title-level squad that can change the game from the bench.

How they could upset it

Everton

  • 11% to win plus 21% for the draw: 32% that Liverpool do not win.
  • Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind.
  • It is the Merseyside derby, where form often counts for little.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Liverpool vs Everton?

The King Exchange goals model, run thousands of times.

  • Liverpool 68%, draw 21%, Everton 11%: a strong lean.
  • Projected score 3-0, with the goals line on a knife edge (2.6 xG).
  • It is the Merseyside derby, so expect more bookings and fewer clear-cut chances.
Projected score
3-0
Half-time
0-0
Both score
41%
Expected goals
1.97 – 0.64
Chance of each goal total
012345+

Deciding factors

Which factors will settle this match?

Home advantage, expected goals and the factor carrying the most weight here.

  1. Home advantage

    Liverpool are both the stronger team and at home, which the model values at a little over a fifth of a goal. The two edges stack.

    Edge: Liverpool

  2. Expected goals

    With 2.6 expected goals, the 2.5 line is near 50/50 (48% for the over).

    Edge: Even

  3. Derby intensity

    The Merseyside derby brings added edge, more fouls and a projected 4.5-5.5 cards. Derbies regularly finish tighter than the table suggests.

    Edge: Draw

How to play it

How should you back or lay Liverpool vs Everton on King Exchange?

Fair prices for the pick and the outsider, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back68% chance

Liverpool1.47

Accept 1.47 or longer. A ₹100 back at 1.47 pays ₹147 including your stake.

Lay11% chance

Everton9.09

Lay only at 9.09 or shorter. At 9.09, a ₹100 lay puts ₹809 at risk to win ₹100.

Three ways to play it · risk rises left to right

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Draw no bet

    Back Liverpool

    86% chance1.16

    Your stake comes back if it finishes level, so only a Everton win loses.

  2. ValueBalanced

    Total goals

    Under 3.5

    74% chance1.35

    A tight contest is the likeliest outcome, and four or more goals would be unusual.

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Correct score

    Liverpool 3-0 Everton

    9% chance11.11

    The model's likeliest scoreline. Correct-score bets pay big but rarely land, so keep the stake light.

Team shape

How will the two teams set up?

Official line-ups are announced roughly an hour before kick-off.

At home

Liverpool

Liverpool are set up to control the ball. They should own most of the possession at Anfield and keep Everton penned in for long stretches.

Away

Everton

Everton are likely to sit in a compact shape on the road at Anfield and wait for a single opening rather than chase control.

What could change

What would change the King Exchange prediction?

Team news and match events that would move our numbers.

  1. If Liverpool field a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would take several points off their win chance. Line-ups drop an hour before kick-off.

  2. If Everton score first

    The favourite must chase, and both the draw and the upset become far more likely.

  3. If a red card arrives in the first hour

    Playing with ten men rewrites the expected-goals picture, whichever team it hits.

The long read

Liverpool vs Everton match preview

Everton travel to Anfield for a 2026/27 Premier League fixture that King Exchange grades as a strong lean. As the Merseyside derby, form matters less than usual, so we have pulled the two sides closer together. We project 1.97 xG for Liverpool and 0.64 for Everton. Over thousands of simulated games, Liverpool come out on top in 68% of them. An early goal would transform the game for Everton. Sides chasing a result leave space, and that is where upsets happen.

“Sides chasing a result leave space, and that is where upsets happen.”

Fixture timeline

Fixture timeline: Liverpool and Everton

Rest days and the next game for both clubs, taken from the official Premier League fixture list.

Liverpool play 7 days after their match away at Man Utd on 23 Jan. Next they are away at Arsenal 7 days after this game. Premier League game 23 of 38.

Everton play 7 days after their match at home to Brentford on 23 Jan. Next they are at home to Newcastle 7 days after this game. Premier League game 23 of 38.

The two clubs already met at Hill Dickinson Stadium on Sun, 29 Nov 2026, so this is the return fixture.

  1. 23 JanMan Utd vs LiverpoolOld Trafford
  2. 23 JanEverton vs BrentfordHill Dickinson Stadium
  3. 30 Jan · this matchLiverpool vs EvertonAnfield
  4. 06 FebArsenal vs LiverpoolEmirates Stadium
  5. 06 FebEverton vs NewcastleHill Dickinson Stadium

Keep reading

More KingExch predictions for Liverpool and Everton

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FAQ · 10

Liverpool vs Everton FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

Need a quick answer? Message King Exchange support on WhatsApp

Who will win Liverpool vs Everton?

King Exchange expects Liverpool to win. The goals model rates Liverpool 68%, the draw 21% and Everton 11%, which we grade as a strong lean.

What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Everton?

Our projected score is 3-0, with 0-0 at half-time. The most frequent exact score across our simulations is 2-0, at 14%.

What are the fair odds for Liverpool vs Everton?

By our numbers: Liverpool 1.47, draw 4.76, Everton 9.09. Any back price shorter than that offers no value on the King Exchange model.

What time does Liverpool vs Everton kick off in India?

20:30 IST in India (UK date Sat, 30 Jan 2027, 15:00 UK time), at Anfield in Liverpool. Kick-offs can be moved for TV, so recheck nearer the day.

Why could Everton upset Liverpool in Liverpool vs Everton?

11% to win plus 21% for the draw: 32% that Liverpool do not win. Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind. It is the Merseyside derby, where form often counts for little.

How should I trade Liverpool vs Everton on King Exchange?

By King Exchange numbers, back Liverpool at 1.47 or longer, or lay Everton at 9.09 or shorter. A lay wins whenever Everton fail to win; at 9.09, a ₹100 lay carries ₹809 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Liverpool vs Everton match kaun jeetega?

King Exchange ke goals model mein Liverpool aage hain: Liverpool 68%, draw 21%, Everton 11%. Sabse sambhavit score 3-0 hai. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Where can I watch Liverpool vs Everton?

Indian broadcast rights change from season to season, so check the official Premier League listings closer to the day.

Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Everton?

We rate both teams to score at 41%, so the lean is no. Over 2.5 goals sits at 48%.

How many goals are expected in Liverpool vs Everton?

2.6 expected goals in all. The likeliest goal count is 2, and a 0-0 shows up 8% of the time.

Dates and kick-offs follow the official Premier League fixture list and can change for TV or cup fixtures. The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the King Exchange model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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Sources and official information

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