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FootballPremier League 2026/27

Arsenal vs Liverpool Prediction, score and odds

57%Arsenal · fair 1.7525%Draw · fair 4.0018%Liverpool · fair 5.56
Kick-off
20:30 IST · 15:00 UK
Date
Sat, 06 Feb 2027
Venue
Emirates Stadium, London
UK broadcast
Not yet picked for UK TV
By King Exchange Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

The case

Who wins Arsenal vs Liverpool, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

Arsenal

  • 57% to win on the King Exchange goals model, a fair back price of 1.75.
  • 1.77 expected goals to 0.90: they should create the better chances.
  • Home advantage at Emirates Stadium, worth about three tenths of a goal.
  • A title-level squad that can change the game from the bench.

How they could upset it

Liverpool

  • 18% to win plus 25% for the draw: 43% that Arsenal do not win.
  • Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind.
  • An early goal would force Arsenal to chase.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Arsenal vs Liverpool?

The King Exchange goals model, run thousands of times.

  • Arsenal 57%, draw 25%, Liverpool 18%: a clear lean.
  • Projected score 2-1, with the goals line on a knife edge (2.7 xG).
  • Both teams to score: 49% on the King Exchange model.
Projected score
2-1
Half-time
0-0
Both score
49%
Expected goals
1.77 – 0.90
Chance of each goal total
012345+

Deciding factors

Which factors will settle this match?

Home advantage, expected goals and the factor carrying the most weight here.

  1. Home advantage

    Arsenal are both the stronger team and at home, which the model values at a little over a fifth of a goal. The two edges stack.

    Edge: Arsenal

  2. Expected goals

    With 2.7 expected goals, the 2.5 line is near 50/50 (50% for the over).

    Edge: Even

  3. Quality gap

    Arsenal rate clearly stronger and the draw is only 25%. If they score first, the game should follow.

    Edge: Arsenal

How to play it

How should you back or lay Arsenal vs Liverpool on King Exchange?

Fair prices for the pick and the outsider, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back57% chance

Arsenal1.75

Accept 1.75 or longer. A ₹100 back at 1.75 pays ₹175 including your stake.

Lay18% chance

Liverpool5.56

Lay only at 5.56 or shorter. At 5.56, a ₹100 lay puts ₹456 at risk to win ₹100.

Three ways to play it · risk rises left to right

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Draw no bet

    Back Arsenal

    76% chance1.32

    Your stake comes back if it finishes level, so only a Liverpool win loses.

  2. ValueBalanced

    Total goals

    Under 3.5

    72% chance1.39

    A tight contest is the likeliest outcome, and four or more goals would be unusual.

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Correct score

    Arsenal 2-1 Liverpool

    10% chance10.00

    The model's likeliest scoreline. Correct-score bets pay big but rarely land, so keep the stake light.

Team shape

How will the two teams set up?

Official line-ups are announced roughly an hour before kick-off.

At home

Arsenal

Arsenal carry a title-level squad. They suffocate opponents at Emirates Stadium, so Liverpool will need a disciplined low block to stay in it.

Away

Liverpool

Liverpool carry a title-level squad. They suffocate opponents on the road at Emirates Stadium, so Arsenal will need a disciplined low block to stay in it.

What could change

What would change the King Exchange prediction?

Team news and match events that would move our numbers.

  1. If Arsenal field a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would take several points off their win chance. Line-ups drop an hour before kick-off.

  2. If Liverpool score first

    The favourite must chase, and both the draw and the upset become far more likely.

  3. If a red card arrives in the first hour

    Playing with ten men rewrites the expected-goals picture, whichever team it hits.

The long read

Arsenal vs Liverpool match preview

Arsenal welcome Liverpool in front of a home crowd, and the King Exchange numbers tilt toward Arsenal. The expected-goals split (1.77 for Arsenal, 0.90 for Liverpool) is the strongest signal, and it drives our 57% for Arsenal. Liverpool's best hope is to keep it level going into the final 30 minutes, when a draw becomes very live.

“Liverpool's best hope is to keep it level going into the final 30 minutes, when a draw becomes very live.”

Fixture timeline

Fixture timeline: Arsenal and Liverpool

Rest days and the next game for both clubs, taken from the official Premier League fixture list.

Arsenal play 7 days after their match away at Man City on 30 Jan. Next they are away at Ipswich 4 days after this game. Premier League game 24 of 38.

Liverpool play 7 days after their match at home to Everton on 30 Jan. Next they are away at Coventry 4 days after this game. Premier League game 24 of 38.

The two clubs already met at Anfield on Sun, 01 Nov 2026, so this is the return fixture.

  1. 30 JanMan City vs ArsenalEtihad Stadium
  2. 30 JanLiverpool vs EvertonAnfield
  3. 06 Feb · this matchArsenal vs LiverpoolEmirates Stadium
  4. 10 FebIpswich vs ArsenalPortman Road
  5. 10 FebCoventry vs LiverpoolCoventry Building Society Arena

Keep reading

More KingExch predictions for Arsenal and Liverpool

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FAQ · 10

Arsenal vs Liverpool FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

Need a quick answer? Message King Exchange support on WhatsApp

Who will win Arsenal vs Liverpool?

King Exchange expects Arsenal to win. The goals model rates Arsenal 57%, the draw 25% and Liverpool 18%, which we grade as a clear lean.

What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Liverpool?

Our projected score is 2-1, with 0-0 at half-time. The most frequent exact score across our simulations is 1-1, at 12%.

What are the fair odds for Arsenal vs Liverpool?

By our numbers: Arsenal 1.75, draw 4.00, Liverpool 5.56. Any back price shorter than that offers no value on the King Exchange model.

What time does Arsenal vs Liverpool kick off in India?

20:30 IST in India (UK date Sat, 06 Feb 2027, 15:00 UK time), at Emirates Stadium in London. Kick-offs can be moved for TV, so recheck nearer the day.

Why could Liverpool upset Arsenal in Arsenal vs Liverpool?

18% to win plus 25% for the draw: 43% that Arsenal do not win. Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind. An early goal would force Arsenal to chase.

How should I trade Arsenal vs Liverpool on King Exchange?

By King Exchange numbers, back Arsenal at 1.75 or longer, or lay Liverpool at 5.56 or shorter. A lay wins whenever Liverpool fail to win; at 5.56, a ₹100 lay carries ₹456 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Arsenal vs Liverpool match kaun jeetega?

King Exchange ke goals model mein Arsenal aage hain: Arsenal 57%, draw 25%, Liverpool 18%. Sabse sambhavit score 2-1 hai. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Liverpool?

We rate both teams to score at 49%, so the lean is no. Over 2.5 goals sits at 50%.

Can Liverpool cause an upset in Arsenal vs Liverpool?

Yes, with an early goal, a disciplined back line and an off day for Arsenal's attack. King Exchange gives Liverpool a 18% chance.

How many goals are expected in Arsenal vs Liverpool?

2.7 expected goals in all. The likeliest goal count is 2, and a 0-0 shows up 8% of the time.

Dates and kick-offs follow the official Premier League fixture list and can change for TV or cup fixtures. The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the King Exchange model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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Sources and official information

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