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FootballPremier League 2026/27

Everton vs Newcastle United Prediction, score and odds

40%Everton · fair 2.5027%Draw · fair 3.7033%Newcastle United · fair 3.03
Kick-off
20:30 IST · 15:00 UK
Date
Sat, 06 Feb 2027
Venue
Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool
UK broadcast
Not yet picked for UK TV
By King Exchange Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

The case

Who wins Everton vs Newcastle, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

Everton

  • 40% to win on the King Exchange goals model, a fair back price of 2.50.
  • 1.43 expected goals to 1.26: they should create the better chances.
  • Home advantage at Hill Dickinson Stadium, worth about three tenths of a goal.

How they could upset it

Newcastle United

  • 33% to win plus 27% for the draw: 60% that Everton do not win.
  • Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind.
  • An early goal would force Everton to chase.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Everton vs Newcastle?

The King Exchange goals model, run thousands of times.

  • Everton 40%, draw 27%, Newcastle 33%: a coin flip.
  • Projected score 2-1, with the goals line on a knife edge (2.7 xG).
  • Both teams to score: 54% on the King Exchange model.
Projected score
2-1
Half-time
0-0
Both score
54%
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.26
Chance of each goal total
012345+

Deciding factors

Which factors will settle this match?

Home advantage, expected goals and the factor carrying the most weight here.

  1. Home advantage

    Everton are both the stronger team and at home, which the model values at a little over a fifth of a goal. The two edges stack.

    Edge: Everton

  2. Expected goals

    With 2.7 expected goals, the 2.5 line is near 50/50 (50% for the over).

    Edge: Even

  3. Draw risk

    A 27% draw chance is high by Premier League standards, which is why our anchor bet protects against the draw instead of backing a straight win.

    Edge: Draw

How to play it

How should you back or lay Everton vs Newcastle on King Exchange?

Fair prices for the pick and the outsider, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back40% chance

Everton2.50

Accept 2.50 or longer. A ₹100 back at 2.50 pays ₹250 including your stake.

Lay33% chance

Newcastle United3.03

Lay only at 3.03 or shorter. At 3.03, a ₹100 lay puts ₹203 at risk to win ₹100.

Three ways to play it · risk rises left to right

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Double chance

    Everton or draw

    67% chance1.49

    Covers two of the three outcomes. Only a Newcastle win loses.

  2. ValueBalanced

    Total goals

    Under 3.5

    72% chance1.39

    A tight contest is the likeliest outcome, and four or more goals would be unusual.

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Correct score

    Everton 2-1 Newcastle

    9% chance11.11

    The model's likeliest scoreline. Correct-score bets pay big but rarely land, so keep the stake light.

Team shape

How will the two teams set up?

Official line-ups are announced roughly an hour before kick-off.

At home

Everton

Everton are likely to sit in a compact shape at Hill Dickinson Stadium and wait for a single opening rather than chase control.

Away

Newcastle United

Newcastle are organised and tough to break down, and they tend to earn results on the road at Hill Dickinson Stadium by controlling the middle of the pitch.

What could change

What would change the King Exchange prediction?

Team news and match events that would move our numbers.

  1. If Everton field a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would take several points off their win chance. Line-ups drop an hour before kick-off.

  2. If Newcastle score first

    The favourite must chase, and both the draw and the upset become far more likely.

  3. If a red card arrives in the first hour

    Playing with ten men rewrites the expected-goals picture, whichever team it hits.

The long read

Everton vs Newcastle match preview

Newcastle United travel to Hill Dickinson Stadium for a 2026/27 Premier League fixture that King Exchange grades as a coin flip. We project 1.43 xG for Everton and 1.26 for Newcastle. Over thousands of simulated games, Everton come out on top in 40% of them. An early goal would transform the game for Newcastle. Sides chasing a result leave space, and that is where upsets happen.

“Sides chasing a result leave space, and that is where upsets happen.”

Fixture timeline

Fixture timeline: Everton and Newcastle

Rest days and the next game for both clubs, taken from the official Premier League fixture list.

Everton play 7 days after their match away at Liverpool on 30 Jan. Next they are at home to Leeds 4 days after this game. Premier League game 24 of 38.

Newcastle play 7 days after their match at home to Brighton on 30 Jan. Next they are at home to Chelsea 4 days after this game. Premier League game 24 of 38.

The two clubs already met at St James' Park on Mon, 02 Nov 2026, so this is the return fixture.

  1. 30 JanLiverpool vs EvertonAnfield
  2. 30 JanNewcastle vs BrightonSt James' Park
  3. 06 Feb · this matchEverton vs NewcastleHill Dickinson Stadium
  4. 10 FebEverton vs LeedsHill Dickinson Stadium
  5. 10 FebNewcastle vs ChelseaSt James' Park

Keep reading

More KingExch predictions for Everton and Newcastle

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FAQ · 10

Everton vs Newcastle United FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

Need a quick answer? Message King Exchange support on WhatsApp

Who will win Everton vs Newcastle?

King Exchange expects Everton to win. The goals model rates Everton 40%, the draw 27% and Newcastle 33%, which we grade as a coin flip.

What is the predicted score for Everton vs Newcastle United?

Our projected score is 2-1, with 0-0 at half-time. The most frequent exact score across our simulations is 1-1, at 13%.

What are the fair odds for Everton vs Newcastle?

By our numbers: Everton 2.50, draw 3.70, Newcastle 3.03. Any back price shorter than that offers no value on the King Exchange model.

What time does Everton vs Newcastle United kick off in India?

20:30 IST in India (UK date Sat, 06 Feb 2027, 15:00 UK time), at Hill Dickinson Stadium in Liverpool. Kick-offs can be moved for TV, so recheck nearer the day.

Why could Newcastle upset Everton in Everton vs Newcastle?

33% to win plus 27% for the draw: 60% that Everton do not win. Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind. An early goal would force Everton to chase.

How should I trade Everton vs Newcastle on King Exchange?

By King Exchange numbers, back Everton at 2.50 or longer, or lay Newcastle United at 3.03 or shorter. A lay wins whenever Newcastle United fail to win; at 3.03, a ₹100 lay carries ₹203 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Everton vs Newcastle match kaun jeetega?

King Exchange ke goals model mein Everton aage hain: Everton 40%, draw 27%, Newcastle 33%. Sabse sambhavit score 2-1 hai. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Is betting on the Premier League legal in India?

In India, online betting is governed by both central and state law, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money gaming. Check the rules that apply in your state before you play. This is general information rather than legal advice, and King Exchange is for adults aged 18 and over only.

Where can I watch Everton vs Newcastle?

Indian broadcast rights change from season to season, so check the official Premier League listings closer to the day.

Will both teams score in Everton vs Newcastle?

We rate both teams to score at 54%, so the lean is yes. Over 2.5 goals sits at 50%.

Dates and kick-offs follow the official Premier League fixture list and can change for TV or cup fixtures. The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the King Exchange model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

Check it at the source

Sources and official information

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