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FootballPremier League 2026/27

Newcastle United vs Everton Prediction, score and odds

54%Newcastle United · fair 1.8524%Draw · fair 4.1722%Everton · fair 4.55
Kick-off
01:30 IST, next day · 20:00 UK
Date
Mon, 02 Nov 2026
Venue
St James' Park, Newcastle
UK broadcast
Sky Sports
By King Exchange Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

The case

Who wins Newcastle vs Everton, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

Newcastle United

  • 54% to win on the King Exchange goals model, a fair back price of 1.85.
  • 1.81 expected goals to 1.08: they should create the better chances.
  • Home advantage at St James' Park, worth about three tenths of a goal.

How they could upset it

Everton

  • 22% to win plus 24% for the draw: 46% that Newcastle do not win.
  • Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind.
  • An early goal would force Newcastle to chase.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Newcastle vs Everton?

The King Exchange goals model, run thousands of times.

  • Newcastle 54%, draw 24%, Everton 22%: a slight lean.
  • Projected score 2-1, with goals expected (2.9 xG).
  • Both teams to score: 55% on the King Exchange model.
Projected score
2-1
Half-time
0-0
Both score
55%
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.08
Chance of each goal total
012345+

Deciding factors

Which factors will settle this match?

Home advantage, expected goals and the factor carrying the most weight here.

  1. Home advantage

    Newcastle are both the stronger team and at home, which the model values at a little over a fifth of a goal. The two edges stack.

    Edge: Newcastle

  2. Expected goals

    2.9 expected goals is above the league norm, and over 2.5 lands 55% of the time in our simulations.

    Edge: Goals

  3. Quality gap

    Newcastle rate clearly stronger and the draw is only 24%. If they score first, the game should follow.

    Edge: Newcastle

How to play it

How should you back or lay Newcastle vs Everton on King Exchange?

Fair prices for the pick and the outsider, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back54% chance

Newcastle United1.85

Accept 1.85 or longer. A ₹100 back at 1.85 pays ₹185 including your stake.

Lay22% chance

Everton4.55

Lay only at 4.55 or shorter. At 4.55, a ₹100 lay puts ₹355 at risk to win ₹100.

Three ways to play it · risk rises left to right

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Draw no bet

    Back Newcastle

    71% chance1.41

    Your stake comes back if it finishes level, so only a Everton win loses.

  2. ValueBalanced

    Both teams to score

    Yes

    55% chance1.82

    Each side projects above one expected goal, and both teams score 55% of the time in our simulations.

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Correct score

    Newcastle 2-1 Everton

    10% chance10.00

    The model's likeliest scoreline. Correct-score bets pay big but rarely land, so keep the stake light.

Team shape

How will the two teams set up?

Official line-ups are announced roughly an hour before kick-off.

At home

Newcastle United

Newcastle are organised and tough to break down, and they tend to earn results at St James' Park by controlling the middle of the pitch.

Away

Everton

Everton are likely to sit in a compact shape on the road at St James' Park and wait for a single opening rather than chase control.

What could change

What would change the King Exchange prediction?

Team news and match events that would move our numbers.

  1. If Newcastle field a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would take several points off their win chance. Line-ups drop an hour before kick-off.

  2. If Everton score first

    The favourite must chase, and both the draw and the upset become far more likely.

  3. If a red card arrives in the first hour

    Playing with ten men rewrites the expected-goals picture, whichever team it hits.

The long read

Newcastle vs Everton match preview

Everton travel to St James' Park for a 2026/27 Premier League fixture that King Exchange grades as a slight lean. We project 1.81 xG for Newcastle and 1.08 for Everton. Over thousands of simulated games, Newcastle come out on top in 54% of them. An early goal would transform the game for Everton. Sides chasing a result leave space, and that is where upsets happen.

“Sides chasing a result leave space, and that is where upsets happen.”

Fixture timeline

Fixture timeline: Newcastle and Everton

Rest days and the next game for both clubs, taken from the official Premier League fixture list.

Newcastle play 8 days after their match away at Palace on 25 Oct. Next they are away at Fulham 5 days after this game. Premier League game 9 of 38.

Everton play 9 days after their match away at Arsenal on 24 Oct. Next they are at home to Coventry 4 days after this game. Premier League game 9 of 38.

They meet again at Hill Dickinson Stadium on Sat, 06 Feb 2027, making this the first of their two league meetings. Shown in the UK on Sky Sports.

  1. 24 OctArsenal vs EvertonEmirates Stadium
  2. 25 OctPalace vs NewcastleSelhurst Park
  3. 02 Nov · this matchNewcastle vs EvertonSt James' Park
  4. 06 NovEverton vs CoventryHill Dickinson Stadium
  5. 07 NovFulham vs NewcastleCraven Cottage

Keep reading

More KingExch predictions for Newcastle and Everton

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FAQ · 10

Newcastle United vs Everton FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

Need a quick answer? Message King Exchange support on WhatsApp

Who will win Newcastle vs Everton?

King Exchange expects Newcastle United to win. The goals model rates Newcastle 54%, the draw 24% and Everton 22%, which we grade as a slight lean.

What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Everton?

Our projected score is 2-1, with 0-0 at half-time. The most frequent exact score across our simulations is 1-1, at 12%.

What are the fair odds for Newcastle vs Everton?

By our numbers: Newcastle 1.85, draw 4.17, Everton 4.55. Any back price shorter than that offers no value on the King Exchange model.

What time does Newcastle United vs Everton kick off in India?

01:30 IST, next day in India (UK date Mon, 02 Nov 2026, 20:00 UK time), at St James' Park in Newcastle. Kick-offs can be moved for TV, so recheck nearer the day.

Why could Everton upset Newcastle in Newcastle vs Everton?

22% to win plus 24% for the draw: 46% that Newcastle do not win. Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind. An early goal would force Newcastle to chase.

How should I trade Newcastle vs Everton on King Exchange?

By King Exchange numbers, back Newcastle United at 1.85 or longer, or lay Everton at 4.55 or shorter. A lay wins whenever Everton fail to win; at 4.55, a ₹100 lay carries ₹355 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Newcastle vs Everton match kaun jeetega?

King Exchange ke goals model mein Newcastle United aage hain: Newcastle 54%, draw 24%, Everton 22%. Sabse sambhavit score 2-1 hai. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

How many goals are expected in Newcastle vs Everton?

2.9 expected goals in all. The likeliest goal count is 2, and a 0-0 shows up 6% of the time.

Can Everton cause an upset in Newcastle vs Everton?

Yes, with an early goal, a disciplined back line and an off day for Newcastle's attack. King Exchange gives Everton a 22% chance.

Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Everton?

We rate both teams to score at 55%, so the lean is yes. Over 2.5 goals sits at 55%.

Dates and kick-offs follow the official Premier League fixture list and can change for TV or cup fixtures. The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the King Exchange model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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Sources and official information

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