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FootballPremier League 2026/27

Manchester United vs Liverpool Prediction, score and odds

38%Manchester United · fair 2.6327%Draw · fair 3.7035%Liverpool · fair 2.86
Kick-off
20:30 IST · 15:00 UK
Date
Sat, 23 Jan 2027
Venue
Old Trafford, Manchester
UK broadcast
Not yet picked for UK TV
By King Exchange Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

The case

Who wins Man Utd vs Liverpool, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

Manchester United

  • 38% to win on the King Exchange goals model, a fair back price of 2.63.
  • 1.38 expected goals to 1.31: they should create the better chances.
  • Home advantage at Old Trafford, worth about three tenths of a goal.

How they could upset it

Liverpool

  • 35% to win plus 27% for the draw: 62% that Man Utd do not win.
  • Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind.
  • An early goal would force Man Utd to chase.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Man Utd vs Liverpool?

The King Exchange goals model, run thousands of times.

  • Man Utd 38%, draw 27%, Liverpool 35%: a coin flip.
  • Projected score 2-1, with the goals line on a knife edge (2.7 xG).
  • Both teams to score: 55% on the King Exchange model.
Projected score
2-1
Half-time
0-0
Both score
55%
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.31
Chance of each goal total
012345+

Deciding factors

Which factors will settle this match?

Home advantage, expected goals and the factor carrying the most weight here.

  1. Home advantage

    Man Utd are both the stronger team and at home, which the model values at a little over a fifth of a goal. The two edges stack.

    Edge: Man Utd

  2. Expected goals

    With 2.7 expected goals, the 2.5 line is near 50/50 (50% for the over).

    Edge: Even

  3. Draw risk

    A 27% draw chance is high by Premier League standards, which is why our anchor bet protects against the draw instead of backing a straight win.

    Edge: Draw

How to play it

How should you back or lay Man Utd vs Liverpool on King Exchange?

Fair prices for the pick and the outsider, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back38% chance

Manchester United2.63

Accept 2.63 or longer. A ₹100 back at 2.63 pays ₹263 including your stake.

Lay35% chance

Liverpool2.86

Lay only at 2.86 or shorter. At 2.86, a ₹100 lay puts ₹186 at risk to win ₹100.

Three ways to play it · risk rises left to right

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Double chance

    Man Utd or draw

    65% chance1.54

    Covers two of the three outcomes. Only a Liverpool win loses.

  2. ValueBalanced

    Both teams to score

    Yes

    55% chance1.82

    Each side projects above one expected goal, and both teams score 55% of the time in our simulations.

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Correct score

    Man Utd 2-1 Liverpool

    8% chance12.50

    The model's likeliest scoreline. Correct-score bets pay big but rarely land, so keep the stake light.

Team shape

How will the two teams set up?

Official line-ups are announced roughly an hour before kick-off.

At home

Manchester United

Man Utd are well coached, with enough cutting edge to punish errors at Old Trafford. Their game is built on winning the midfield.

Away

Liverpool

Liverpool carry a title-level squad. They suffocate opponents on the road at Old Trafford, so Man Utd will need a disciplined low block to stay in it.

What could change

What would change the King Exchange prediction?

Team news and match events that would move our numbers.

  1. If Man Utd field a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would take several points off their win chance. Line-ups drop an hour before kick-off.

  2. If Liverpool score first

    The favourite must chase, and both the draw and the upset become far more likely.

  3. If a red card arrives in the first hour

    Playing with ten men rewrites the expected-goals picture, whichever team it hits.

The long read

Man Utd vs Liverpool match preview

Manchester United welcome Liverpool in front of a home crowd, and the King Exchange numbers tilt toward Man Utd. The expected-goals split (1.38 for Man Utd, 1.31 for Liverpool) is the strongest signal, and it drives our 38% for Man Utd. Liverpool's best hope is to keep it level going into the final 30 minutes, when a draw becomes very live.

“Liverpool's best hope is to keep it level going into the final 30 minutes, when a draw becomes very live.”

Fixture timeline

Fixture timeline: Man Utd and Liverpool

Rest days and the next game for both clubs, taken from the official Premier League fixture list.

Man Utd play 7 days after their match away at Villa on 16 Jan. Next they are away at Brentford 7 days after this game. Premier League game 22 of 38.

Liverpool play 7 days after their match at home to Palace on 16 Jan. Next they are at home to Everton 7 days after this game. Premier League game 22 of 38.

The two clubs already met at Anfield on Sun, 22 Nov 2026, so this is the return fixture.

  1. 16 JanVilla vs Man UtdVilla Park
  2. 16 JanLiverpool vs PalaceAnfield
  3. 23 Jan · this matchMan Utd vs LiverpoolOld Trafford
  4. 30 JanBrentford vs Man UtdGtech Community Stadium
  5. 30 JanLiverpool vs EvertonAnfield

Keep reading

More KingExch predictions for Man Utd and Liverpool

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FAQ · 10

Manchester United vs Liverpool FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

Need a quick answer? Message King Exchange support on WhatsApp

Who will win Man Utd vs Liverpool?

King Exchange expects Manchester United to win. The goals model rates Man Utd 38%, the draw 27% and Liverpool 35%, which we grade as a coin flip.

What is the predicted score for Manchester United vs Liverpool?

Our projected score is 2-1, with 0-0 at half-time. The most frequent exact score across our simulations is 1-1, at 13%.

What are the fair odds for Man Utd vs Liverpool?

By our numbers: Man Utd 2.63, draw 3.70, Liverpool 2.86. Any back price shorter than that offers no value on the King Exchange model.

What time does Manchester United vs Liverpool kick off in India?

20:30 IST in India (UK date Sat, 23 Jan 2027, 15:00 UK time), at Old Trafford in Manchester. Kick-offs can be moved for TV, so recheck nearer the day.

Why could Liverpool upset Man Utd in Man Utd vs Liverpool?

35% to win plus 27% for the draw: 62% that Man Utd do not win. Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind. An early goal would force Man Utd to chase.

How should I trade Man Utd vs Liverpool on King Exchange?

By King Exchange numbers, back Manchester United at 2.63 or longer, or lay Liverpool at 2.86 or shorter. A lay wins whenever Liverpool fail to win; at 2.86, a ₹100 lay carries ₹186 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Man Utd vs Liverpool match kaun jeetega?

King Exchange ke goals model mein Manchester United aage hain: Man Utd 38%, draw 27%, Liverpool 35%. Sabse sambhavit score 2-1 hai. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Can Liverpool cause an upset in Man Utd vs Liverpool?

Yes, with an early goal, a disciplined back line and an off day for Man Utd's attack. King Exchange gives Liverpool a 35% chance.

Is betting on the Premier League legal in India?

In India, online betting is governed by both central and state law, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money gaming. Check the rules that apply in your state before you play. This is general information rather than legal advice, and King Exchange is for adults aged 18 and over only.

Will both teams score in Man Utd vs Liverpool?

We rate both teams to score at 55%, so the lean is yes. Over 2.5 goals sits at 50%.

Dates and kick-offs follow the official Premier League fixture list and can change for TV or cup fixtures. The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the King Exchange model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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Sources and official information

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