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FootballPremier League 2026/27

Everton vs Brentford Prediction, score and odds

46%Everton · fair 2.1726%Draw · fair 3.8528%Brentford · fair 3.57
Kick-off
20:30 IST · 15:00 UK
Date
Sat, 23 Jan 2027
Venue
Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool
UK broadcast
Not yet picked for UK TV
By King Exchange Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

The case

Who wins Everton vs Brentford, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

Everton

  • 46% to win on the King Exchange goals model, a fair back price of 2.17.
  • 1.57 expected goals to 1.16: they should create the better chances.
  • Home advantage at Hill Dickinson Stadium, worth about three tenths of a goal.

How they could upset it

Brentford

  • 28% to win plus 26% for the draw: 54% that Everton do not win.
  • Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind.
  • An early goal would force Everton to chase.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Everton vs Brentford?

The King Exchange goals model, run thousands of times.

  • Everton 46%, draw 26%, Brentford 28%: a coin flip.
  • Projected score 2-1, with the goals line on a knife edge (2.7 xG).
  • Both teams to score: 54% on the King Exchange model.
Projected score
2-1
Half-time
0-0
Both score
54%
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.16
Chance of each goal total
012345+

Deciding factors

Which factors will settle this match?

Home advantage, expected goals and the factor carrying the most weight here.

  1. Home advantage

    Everton are both the stronger team and at home, which the model values at a little over a fifth of a goal. The two edges stack.

    Edge: Everton

  2. Expected goals

    With 2.7 expected goals, the 2.5 line is near 50/50 (51% for the over).

    Edge: Even

  3. Quality gap

    Everton rate clearly stronger and the draw is only 26%. If they score first, the game should follow.

    Edge: Everton

How to play it

How should you back or lay Everton vs Brentford on King Exchange?

Fair prices for the pick and the outsider, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back46% chance

Everton2.17

Accept 2.17 or longer. A ₹100 back at 2.17 pays ₹217 including your stake.

Lay28% chance

Brentford3.57

Lay only at 3.57 or shorter. At 3.57, a ₹100 lay puts ₹257 at risk to win ₹100.

Three ways to play it · risk rises left to right

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Draw no bet

    Back Everton

    63% chance1.59

    Your stake comes back if it finishes level, so only a Brentford win loses.

  2. ValueBalanced

    Total goals

    Under 3.5

    71% chance1.41

    A tight contest is the likeliest outcome, and four or more goals would be unusual.

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Correct score

    Everton 2-1 Brentford

    9% chance11.11

    The model's likeliest scoreline. Correct-score bets pay big but rarely land, so keep the stake light.

Team shape

How will the two teams set up?

Official line-ups are announced roughly an hour before kick-off.

At home

Everton

Everton are likely to sit in a compact shape at Hill Dickinson Stadium and wait for a single opening rather than chase control.

Away

Brentford

Brentford are a pragmatic mid-table team: sturdy out of possession on the road at Hill Dickinson Stadium, but short of the creativity to dictate a game.

What could change

What would change the King Exchange prediction?

Team news and match events that would move our numbers.

  1. If Everton field a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would take several points off their win chance. Line-ups drop an hour before kick-off.

  2. If Brentford score first

    The favourite must chase, and both the draw and the upset become far more likely.

  3. If a red card arrives in the first hour

    Playing with ten men rewrites the expected-goals picture, whichever team it hits.

The long read

Everton vs Brentford match preview

Brentford travel to Hill Dickinson Stadium for a 2026/27 Premier League fixture that King Exchange grades as a coin flip. We project 1.57 xG for Everton and 1.16 for Brentford. Over thousands of simulated games, Everton come out on top in 46% of them. An early goal would transform the game for Brentford. Sides chasing a result leave space, and that is where upsets happen.

“Sides chasing a result leave space, and that is where upsets happen.”

Fixture timeline

Fixture timeline: Everton and Brentford

Rest days and the next game for both clubs, taken from the official Premier League fixture list.

Everton play 7 days after their match away at Coventry on 16 Jan. Next they are away at Liverpool 7 days after this game. Premier League game 22 of 38.

Brentford play 7 days after their match at home to Brighton on 16 Jan. Next they are at home to Man Utd 7 days after this game. Premier League game 22 of 38.

The two clubs already met at Gtech Community Stadium on Mon, 23 Nov 2026, so this is the return fixture.

  1. 16 JanCoventry vs EvertonCoventry Building Society Arena
  2. 16 JanBrentford vs BrightonGtech Community Stadium
  3. 23 Jan · this matchEverton vs BrentfordHill Dickinson Stadium
  4. 30 JanLiverpool vs EvertonAnfield
  5. 30 JanBrentford vs Man UtdGtech Community Stadium

Keep reading

More KingExch predictions for Everton and Brentford

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FAQ · 10

Everton vs Brentford FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

Need a quick answer? Message King Exchange support on WhatsApp

Who will win Everton vs Brentford?

King Exchange expects Everton to win. The goals model rates Everton 46%, the draw 26% and Brentford 28%, which we grade as a coin flip.

What is the predicted score for Everton vs Brentford?

Our projected score is 2-1, with 0-0 at half-time. The most frequent exact score across our simulations is 1-1, at 13%.

What are the fair odds for Everton vs Brentford?

By our numbers: Everton 2.17, draw 3.85, Brentford 3.57. Any back price shorter than that offers no value on the King Exchange model.

What time does Everton vs Brentford kick off in India?

20:30 IST in India (UK date Sat, 23 Jan 2027, 15:00 UK time), at Hill Dickinson Stadium in Liverpool. Kick-offs can be moved for TV, so recheck nearer the day.

Why could Brentford upset Everton in Everton vs Brentford?

28% to win plus 26% for the draw: 54% that Everton do not win. Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind. An early goal would force Everton to chase.

How should I trade Everton vs Brentford on King Exchange?

By King Exchange numbers, back Everton at 2.17 or longer, or lay Brentford at 3.57 or shorter. A lay wins whenever Brentford fail to win; at 3.57, a ₹100 lay carries ₹257 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Everton vs Brentford match kaun jeetega?

King Exchange ke goals model mein Everton aage hain: Everton 46%, draw 26%, Brentford 28%. Sabse sambhavit score 2-1 hai. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

How many goals are expected in Everton vs Brentford?

2.7 expected goals in all. The likeliest goal count is 2, and a 0-0 shows up 7% of the time.

Is betting on the Premier League legal in India?

In India, online betting is governed by both central and state law, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money gaming. Check the rules that apply in your state before you play. This is general information rather than legal advice, and King Exchange is for adults aged 18 and over only.

Can Brentford cause an upset in Everton vs Brentford?

Yes, with an early goal, a disciplined back line and an off day for Everton's attack. King Exchange gives Brentford a 28% chance.

Dates and kick-offs follow the official Premier League fixture list and can change for TV or cup fixtures. The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the King Exchange model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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