King Exchange
Get ID now

FootballPremier League 2026/27

Sunderland vs Liverpool Prediction, score and odds

23%Sunderland · fair 4.3523%Draw · fair 4.3554%Liverpool · fair 1.85
Kick-off
01:45 IST, next day · 20:15 UK
Date
Tue, 05 Jan 2027
Venue
Stadium of Light, Sunderland
UK broadcast
Sky Sports
By King Exchange Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

The case

Who wins Sunderland vs Liverpool, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

Liverpool

  • 54% to win on the King Exchange goals model, a fair back price of 1.85.
  • 1.91 expected goals to 1.16: they should create the better chances.
  • Enough extra quality to overcome a trip to Stadium of Light.
  • A title-level squad that can change the game from the bench.

How they could upset it

Sunderland

  • 23% to win plus 23% for the draw: 46% that Liverpool do not win.
  • The home crowd at Stadium of Light is behind them.
  • An early goal would force Liverpool to chase.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Sunderland vs Liverpool?

The King Exchange goals model, run thousands of times.

  • Liverpool 54%, draw 23%, Sunderland 23%: a slight lean.
  • Projected score 1-2, with goals expected (3.1 xG).
  • Both teams to score: 59% on the King Exchange model.
Projected score
1-2
Half-time
0-0
Both score
59%
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.91
Chance of each goal total
012345+

Deciding factors

Which factors will settle this match?

Home advantage, expected goals and the factor carrying the most weight here.

  1. Home advantage

    Home support is worth about a fifth of a goal to Sunderland. It closes the gap but does not erase Liverpool's extra quality.

    Edge: Even

  2. Expected goals

    3.1 expected goals is above the league norm, and over 2.5 lands 59% of the time in our simulations.

    Edge: Goals

  3. Quality gap

    Liverpool rate clearly stronger and the draw is only 23%. If they score first, the game should follow.

    Edge: Liverpool

How to play it

How should you back or lay Sunderland vs Liverpool on King Exchange?

Fair prices for the pick and the outsider, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back54% chance

Liverpool1.85

Accept 1.85 or longer. A ₹100 back at 1.85 pays ₹185 including your stake.

Lay23% chance

Sunderland4.35

Lay only at 4.35 or shorter. At 4.35, a ₹100 lay puts ₹335 at risk to win ₹100.

Three ways to play it · risk rises left to right

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Draw no bet

    Back Liverpool

    71% chance1.41

    Your stake comes back if it finishes level, so only a Sunderland win loses.

  2. ValueBalanced

    Both teams to score

    Yes

    59% chance1.69

    Each side projects above one expected goal, and both teams score 59% of the time in our simulations.

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Correct score

    Sunderland 1-2 Liverpool

    10% chance10.00

    The model's likeliest scoreline. Correct-score bets pay big but rarely land, so keep the stake light.

Team shape

How will the two teams set up?

Official line-ups are announced roughly an hour before kick-off.

At home

Sunderland

Sunderland are likely to sit in a compact shape at Stadium of Light and wait for a single opening rather than chase control.

Away

Liverpool

Liverpool carry a title-level squad. They suffocate opponents on the road at Stadium of Light, so Sunderland will need a disciplined low block to stay in it.

What could change

What would change the King Exchange prediction?

Team news and match events that would move our numbers.

  1. If Liverpool field a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would take several points off their win chance. Line-ups drop an hour before kick-off.

  2. If Sunderland score first

    The favourite must chase, and both the draw and the upset become far more likely.

  3. If a red card arrives in the first hour

    Playing with ten men rewrites the expected-goals picture, whichever team it hits.

The long read

Sunderland vs Liverpool match preview

Sunderland welcome Liverpool in front of a home crowd, and the King Exchange numbers tilt toward Liverpool. The expected-goals split (1.16 for Sunderland, 1.91 for Liverpool) is the strongest signal, and it drives our 54% for Liverpool. Sunderland's best hope is to keep it level going into the final 30 minutes, when a draw becomes very live.

“Sunderland's best hope is to keep it level going into the final 30 minutes, when a draw becomes very live.”

Fixture timeline

Fixture timeline: Sunderland and Liverpool

Rest days and the next game for both clubs, taken from the official Premier League fixture list.

Sunderland play 3 days after their match at home to Hull on 02 Jan, so fatigue could tell in the closing stages. Next they are away at Chelsea 11 days after this game. Premier League game 20 of 38.

Liverpool play 3 days after their match at home to Coventry on 02 Jan, so fatigue could tell in the closing stages. Next they are at home to Palace 11 days after this game. Premier League game 20 of 38.

The two clubs already met at Anfield on Wed, 02 Dec 2026, so this is the return fixture. Shown in the UK on Sky Sports.

  1. 02 JanSunderland vs HullStadium of Light
  2. 02 JanLiverpool vs CoventryAnfield
  3. 05 Jan · this matchSunderland vs LiverpoolStadium of Light
  4. 16 JanChelsea vs SunderlandStamford Bridge
  5. 16 JanLiverpool vs PalaceAnfield

Keep reading

More KingExch predictions for Sunderland and Liverpool

Back or lay in-play

Trade this match on your KingExch ID.

One King Exchange ID covers cricket, football and tennis, with round-the-clock WhatsApp support in English and Hindi. Adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you play.

Get your ID on WhatsAppFull match schedule

FAQ · 10

Sunderland vs Liverpool FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

Need a quick answer? Message King Exchange support on WhatsApp

Who will win Sunderland vs Liverpool?

King Exchange expects Liverpool to win. The goals model rates Sunderland 23%, the draw 23% and Liverpool 54%, which we grade as a slight lean.

What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Liverpool?

Our projected score is 1-2, with 0-0 at half-time. The most frequent exact score across our simulations is 1-1, at 11%.

What are the fair odds for Sunderland vs Liverpool?

By our numbers: Sunderland 4.35, draw 4.35, Liverpool 1.85. Any back price shorter than that offers no value on the King Exchange model.

What time does Sunderland vs Liverpool kick off in India?

01:45 IST, next day in India (UK date Tue, 05 Jan 2027, 20:15 UK time), at Stadium of Light in Sunderland. Kick-offs can be moved for TV, so recheck nearer the day.

Why could Sunderland upset Liverpool in Sunderland vs Liverpool?

23% to win plus 23% for the draw: 46% that Liverpool do not win. The home crowd at Stadium of Light is behind them. An early goal would force Liverpool to chase.

How should I trade Sunderland vs Liverpool on King Exchange?

By King Exchange numbers, back Liverpool at 1.85 or longer, or lay Sunderland at 4.35 or shorter. A lay wins whenever Sunderland fail to win; at 4.35, a ₹100 lay carries ₹335 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Sunderland vs Liverpool match kaun jeetega?

King Exchange ke goals model mein Liverpool aage hain: Sunderland 23%, draw 23%, Liverpool 54%. Sabse sambhavit score 1-2 hai. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Can Sunderland cause an upset in Sunderland vs Liverpool?

Yes, with an early goal, a disciplined back line and an off day for Liverpool's attack. King Exchange gives Sunderland a 23% chance.

Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Liverpool?

We rate both teams to score at 59%, so the lean is yes. Over 2.5 goals sits at 59%.

Where can I watch Sunderland vs Liverpool?

UK viewers can watch on Sky Sports. Indian broadcast rights change from season to season, so check the official Premier League listings closer to the day.

Dates and kick-offs follow the official Premier League fixture list and can change for TV or cup fixtures. The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the King Exchange model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

Check it at the source

Sources and official information

External sites open in a new tab. We aren't affiliated with them.