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CricketEngland tour of Australia, 2026 · game 1 of 8

Australia vs England 1st ODI prediction

61%Australia · fair 1.6439%England · fair 2.56
Start
Start time to be confirmed
Date
Thu, 12 Nov 2026
Venue
Perth Stadium, Perth
Format
ODI · 50 overs · flat, run-heavy pitch
By King Exchange Cricket Desk, match analysisUpdated

The case

Who wins AUS vs ENG, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

Australia

  • Rated 61% by King Exchange, which is a fair back price of 1.64.
  • A projected 14-run cushion in the first-innings total (354 to 340).
  • Home conditions: Australia know a flat, run-heavy surface like this better than anyone.
  • Marcus Stoinis, their likeliest match-winner (balances the xi).

How they could upset it

England

  • 39% to win, which is roughly one game in 3.
  • No form from this tour yet, so the favourites' edge is untested.
  • Rain or a shortened game adds randomness, and randomness helps the underdog.
  • Liam Livingstone can win a game single-handed (balances the xi).

By the numbers

How many runs will Australia and England score?

Projected runs in each phase of the first innings at Perth Stadium.

  • Australia rated 61%, a clear lean. Back them only at 1.64 or longer.
  • A pitch that suits batters, with Australia projected to post the higher total.
  • Australia have home conditions in their favour.
KingExch pick
Australia
Format
ODI · 50 overs
Pitch
flat, run-heavy
Suits
Batters
Powerplay (0-10)
Middle Overs (11-40)
Death Overs (41-50)
Australia EnglandInnings: AUS 330-378 · ENG 316-364

Deciding factors

Which factors will settle this match?

The pitch first, then the two factors carrying the most weight in this fixture.

  1. Pitch read

    Firm, true and quick, with short boundaries and a rapid outfield. An under-par total will not hold up on this surface. Both teams will lean on the batters, so the deeper attack counts.

    Edge: Even

  2. Series opener

    Neither team has tour form to go on yet, which makes a series opener the hardest game to read. A fast start from England would shift the odds quickly.

    Edge: England

  3. Toss call

    Batting or fielding first offers no real edge while the surface stays this good.

    Edge: Even

How to play it

How should you back or lay AUS vs ENG on King Exchange?

Fair prices for both teams, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back61% chance

Australia1.64

Accept 1.64 or longer. A ₹100 back at 1.64 pays ₹164 including your stake.

Lay39% chance

England2.56

Lay only at 2.56 or shorter. At 2.56, a ₹100 lay puts ₹156 at risk to win ₹100.

Three ways to play it · risk rises left to right

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Match odds

    Back Australia

    61% chance1.64

    Our most likely outcome. Once the back price drops below 1.64, the value is gone.

  2. ValueBalanced

    Australia first-innings total

    Over 338.5

    57% chance1.75

    We project about 354, comfortably clear of 338.5, so a slow start can still land it.

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Top team batter

    Marcus Stoinis (Australia)

    18% chance5.56

    Balances the XI. A long-odds market, so keep the stake small.

Match-winners

Who can swing Australia vs England?

Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to settle the result. XIs are named at the toss.

Australia

  • Marcus Stoinis85

    Balances the XI

  • Mitchell Starc95

    Trusted at the end of the innings

England

  • Liam Livingstone92

    Balances the XI

  • Phil Salt93

    Fast starter at the top

What could change

What would change the King Exchange prediction?

Team news and conditions that would move our numbers before the first ball.

  1. If Marcus Stoinis misses out

    Australia would drop by about five points, turning this into a clear lean.

  2. If the surface looks drier or greener than expected at the toss

    More help for the bowlers would narrow the gap between the two batting orders.

  3. If rain cuts the overs

    A shorter game adds randomness, which works in the underdog's favour.

The long read

Australia vs England match preview

The first game of England tour of Australia, 2026 usually sets the tone for everything that follows, and both camps know it. The King Exchange model leans to Australia at 61%, driven mostly by squad depth and how Perth Stadium has behaved in recent seasons. Australia are on home soil, and the model adds a few percentage points for that. At 39%, England are far from out of it, but they need their best players to deliver on the same day.

On the toss: Batting or fielding first offers no real edge while the surface stays this good.

“At 39%, England are far from out of it, but they need their best players to deliver on the same day.”

Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.

Fixture timeline

Fixture timeline: 1st ODI

Rest days, travel and what comes next in England tour of Australia, 2026.

The 1st ODI is staged at Perth Stadium in Perth on Thu, 12 Nov 2026, game 1 of 8 in the series.

Being the series opener, there is no head-to-head form from this tour yet, so early prices lean on reputation.

Next on the calendar: the 2nd ODI, 3 days after this game at Adelaide Oval in Adelaide.

More from Perth Stadium on the King Exchange schedule: 1st Test: Australia vs New Zealand (09 Dec) (1 fixture in total).

  1. 12 Nov · this match1st ODI: Australia vs EnglandPerth Stadium
  2. 15 Nov2nd ODI: Australia vs EnglandAdelaide Oval

Keep reading

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FAQ · 10

AUS vs ENG 1st ODI FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

Need a quick answer? Message King Exchange support on WhatsApp

Who will win the Australia vs England 1st ODI?

King Exchange expects Australia to win, rating them 61% against 39% for England, which is a clear lean. The pick blends team ratings, home advantage and how a flat, run-heavy surface at Perth Stadium should play.

What are the fair odds for Australia in the AUS vs ENG 1st ODI?

A 61% rating converts to fair decimal odds of 1.64 for Australia and 2.56 for England. If the exchange back price is shorter than that, the bet offers no value by our numbers.

What time does the AUS vs ENG 1st ODI start in India?

The series window places it on Thu, 12 Nov 2026 (start time to be confirmed) at Perth Stadium, Perth, but the board has not yet confirmed the date or start time. King Exchange updates this page as soon as it does.

What is the pitch report for Perth Stadium in the AUS vs ENG 1st ODI?

We expect a flat, run-heavy surface that should favour the batters. Firm, true and quick, with short boundaries and a rapid outfield. An under-par total will not hold up on this surface.

Should the captain bat or bowl first in the AUS vs ENG 1st ODI?

Batting or fielding first offers no real edge while the surface stays this good. The toss takes place about 30 minutes before the start, when both XIs are named.

Can England win the AUS vs ENG 1st ODI?

Yes, though they need early wickets or a match-winning knock. King Exchange gives England a 39% chance, and that climbs if they win a toss that matters or Australia change their best XI.

Why could England upset Australia in the AUS vs ENG 1st ODI?

39% to win, which is roughly one game in 3. No form from this tour yet, so the favourites' edge is untested. Rain or a shortened game adds randomness, and randomness helps the underdog. Liam Livingstone can win a game single-handed (balances the xi).

How should I trade the Australia vs England 1st ODI on King Exchange?

By King Exchange numbers, back Australia at 1.64 or longer, or lay England at 2.56 or shorter. A lay wins whenever England fail to win; at 2.56, a ₹100 lay carries ₹156 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Australia vs England 1st ODI match kaun jeetega?

King Exchange ke model ke mutabik Australia ka palda bhaari hai: 61%, jabki England ka 39%. Match Thu, 12 Nov 2026 (start time to be confirmed) shuru hoga. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

AUS vs ENG 1st ODI ke liye Perth ki pitch report kya hai?

Humara andaaza hai ki pitch flat, run-heavy rahegi, yaani batting ke liye badhiya pitch hai, bada score ban sakta hai. Toss match se lagbhag aadha ghanta pehle hoga.

The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the King Exchange model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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