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FootballPremier League 2026/27

Hull City vs Newcastle United Prediction, score and odds

15%Hull City · fair 6.6721%Draw · fair 4.7664%Newcastle United · fair 1.56
Kick-off
19:30 IST · 15:00 UK
Date
Sun, 30 May 2027
Venue
MKM Stadium, Hull
UK broadcast
Not yet picked for UK TV
By King Exchange Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

The case

Who wins Hull vs Newcastle, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

Newcastle United

  • 64% to win on the King Exchange goals model, a fair back price of 1.56.
  • 2.11 expected goals to 0.91: they should create the better chances.
  • Enough extra quality to overcome a trip to MKM Stadium.

How they could upset it

Hull City

  • 15% to win plus 21% for the draw: 36% that Newcastle do not win.
  • The home crowd at MKM Stadium is behind them.
  • Set pieces, the go-to weapon of a newly promoted side.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Hull vs Newcastle?

The King Exchange goals model, run thousands of times.

  • Newcastle 64%, draw 21%, Hull 15%: a strong lean.
  • Projected score 1-2, with goals expected (3.0 xG).
  • Both teams to score: 53% on the King Exchange model.
Projected score
1-2
Half-time
0-0
Both score
53%
Expected goals
0.91 – 2.11
Chance of each goal total
012345+

Deciding factors

Which factors will settle this match?

Home advantage, expected goals and the factor carrying the most weight here.

  1. Home advantage

    Home support is worth about a fifth of a goal to Hull. It closes the gap but does not erase Newcastle's extra quality.

    Edge: Even

  2. Expected goals

    3.0 expected goals is above the league norm, and over 2.5 lands 58% of the time in our simulations.

    Edge: Goals

  3. Quality gap

    Newcastle rate clearly stronger and the draw is only 21%. If they score first, the game should follow.

    Edge: Newcastle

How to play it

How should you back or lay Hull vs Newcastle on King Exchange?

Fair prices for the pick and the outsider, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back64% chance

Newcastle United1.56

Accept 1.56 or longer. A ₹100 back at 1.56 pays ₹156 including your stake.

Lay15% chance

Hull City6.67

Lay only at 6.67 or shorter. At 6.67, a ₹100 lay puts ₹567 at risk to win ₹100.

Three ways to play it · risk rises left to right

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Draw no bet

    Back Newcastle

    81% chance1.23

    Your stake comes back if it finishes level, so only a Hull win loses.

  2. ValueBalanced

    Total goals

    Over 2.5

    58% chance1.72

    3.0 expected goals clears the 2.5 line more often than not.

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Correct score

    Hull 1-2 Newcastle

    10% chance10.00

    The model's likeliest scoreline. Correct-score bets pay big but rarely land, so keep the stake light.

Team shape

How will the two teams set up?

Official line-ups are announced roughly an hour before kick-off.

At home · promoted

Hull City

Hull are newly promoted and still getting used to the speed of the top flight. Look for a deep, compact block at MKM Stadium, long periods without the ball and most of their danger from set pieces.

Away

Newcastle United

Newcastle are organised and tough to break down, and they tend to earn results on the road at MKM Stadium by controlling the middle of the pitch.

What could change

What would change the King Exchange prediction?

Team news and match events that would move our numbers.

  1. If Newcastle field a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would take several points off their win chance. Line-ups drop an hour before kick-off.

  2. If Hull score first

    The favourite must chase, and both the draw and the upset become far more likely.

  3. If a red card arrives in the first hour

    Playing with ten men rewrites the expected-goals picture, whichever team it hits.

The long read

Hull vs Newcastle match preview

Newcastle United travel to MKM Stadium for a 2026/27 Premier League fixture that King Exchange grades as a strong lean. We project 0.91 xG for Hull and 2.11 for Newcastle. Over thousands of simulated games, Newcastle come out on top in 64% of them. An early goal would transform the game for Hull. Sides chasing a result leave space, and that is where upsets happen.

“Sides chasing a result leave space, and that is where upsets happen.”

Fixture timeline

Fixture timeline: Hull and Newcastle

Rest days and the next game for both clubs, taken from the official Premier League fixture list.

Hull play 7 days after their match away at Brentford on 23 May. This is their final league game of the season. Premier League game 38 of 38.

Newcastle play 7 days after their match at home to Palace on 23 May. This is their final league game of the season. Premier League game 38 of 38.

The two clubs already met at St James' Park on Sat, 19 Sept 2026, so this is the return fixture.

  1. 23 MayBrentford vs HullGtech Community Stadium
  2. 23 MayNewcastle vs PalaceSt James' Park
  3. 30 May · this matchHull vs NewcastleMKM Stadium

Keep reading

More KingExch predictions for Hull and Newcastle

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FAQ · 10

Hull City vs Newcastle United FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

Need a quick answer? Message King Exchange support on WhatsApp

Who will win Hull vs Newcastle?

King Exchange expects Newcastle United to win. The goals model rates Hull 15%, the draw 21% and Newcastle 64%, which we grade as a strong lean.

What is the predicted score for Hull City vs Newcastle United?

Our projected score is 1-2, with 0-0 at half-time. The most frequent exact score across our simulations is 0-2, at 11%.

What are the fair odds for Hull vs Newcastle?

By our numbers: Hull 6.67, draw 4.76, Newcastle 1.56. Any back price shorter than that offers no value on the King Exchange model.

What time does Hull City vs Newcastle United kick off in India?

19:30 IST in India (UK date Sun, 30 May 2027, 15:00 UK time), at MKM Stadium in Hull. Kick-offs can be moved for TV, so recheck nearer the day.

Why could Hull upset Newcastle in Hull vs Newcastle?

15% to win plus 21% for the draw: 36% that Newcastle do not win. The home crowd at MKM Stadium is behind them. Set pieces, the go-to weapon of a newly promoted side.

How should I trade Hull vs Newcastle on King Exchange?

By King Exchange numbers, back Newcastle United at 1.56 or longer, or lay Hull City at 6.67 or shorter. A lay wins whenever Hull City fail to win; at 6.67, a ₹100 lay carries ₹567 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Hull vs Newcastle match kaun jeetega?

King Exchange ke goals model mein Newcastle United aage hain: Hull 15%, draw 21%, Newcastle 64%. Sabse sambhavit score 1-2 hai. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Is betting on the Premier League legal in India?

In India, online betting is governed by both central and state law, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money gaming. Check the rules that apply in your state before you play. This is general information rather than legal advice, and King Exchange is for adults aged 18 and over only.

How many goals are expected in Hull vs Newcastle?

3.0 expected goals in all. The likeliest goal count is 2, and a 0-0 shows up 5% of the time.

Can Hull cause an upset in Hull vs Newcastle?

Yes, with an early goal, a disciplined back line and an off day for Newcastle's attack. King Exchange gives Hull a 15% chance.

Dates and kick-offs follow the official Premier League fixture list and can change for TV or cup fixtures. The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the King Exchange model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

Check it at the source

Sources and official information

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