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FootballPremier League 2026/27

Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace Prediction, score and odds

41%Newcastle United · fair 2.4427%Draw · fair 3.7032%Crystal Palace · fair 3.13
Kick-off
19:30 IST · 15:00 UK
Date
Sun, 23 May 2027
Venue
St James' Park, Newcastle
UK broadcast
Not yet picked for UK TV
By King Exchange Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

The case

Who wins Newcastle vs Palace, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

Newcastle United

  • 41% to win on the King Exchange goals model, a fair back price of 2.44.
  • 1.43 expected goals to 1.25: they should create the better chances.
  • Home advantage at St James' Park, worth about three tenths of a goal.

How they could upset it

Crystal Palace

  • 32% to win plus 27% for the draw: 59% that Newcastle do not win.
  • Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind.
  • An early goal would force Newcastle to chase.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Newcastle vs Palace?

The King Exchange goals model, run thousands of times.

  • Newcastle 41%, draw 27%, Palace 32%: a coin flip.
  • Projected score 2-1, with the goals line on a knife edge (2.7 xG).
  • Both teams to score: 54% on the King Exchange model.
Projected score
2-1
Half-time
0-0
Both score
54%
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.25
Chance of each goal total
012345+

Deciding factors

Which factors will settle this match?

Home advantage, expected goals and the factor carrying the most weight here.

  1. Home advantage

    Newcastle are both the stronger team and at home, which the model values at a little over a fifth of a goal. The two edges stack.

    Edge: Newcastle

  2. Expected goals

    With 2.7 expected goals, the 2.5 line is near 50/50 (50% for the over).

    Edge: Even

  3. Draw risk

    A 27% draw chance is high by Premier League standards, which is why our anchor bet protects against the draw instead of backing a straight win.

    Edge: Draw

How to play it

How should you back or lay Newcastle vs Palace on King Exchange?

Fair prices for the pick and the outsider, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back41% chance

Newcastle United2.44

Accept 2.44 or longer. A ₹100 back at 2.44 pays ₹244 including your stake.

Lay32% chance

Crystal Palace3.13

Lay only at 3.13 or shorter. At 3.13, a ₹100 lay puts ₹213 at risk to win ₹100.

Three ways to play it · risk rises left to right

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Double chance

    Newcastle or draw

    68% chance1.47

    Covers two of the three outcomes. Only a Palace win loses.

  2. ValueBalanced

    Total goals

    Under 3.5

    72% chance1.39

    A tight contest is the likeliest outcome, and four or more goals would be unusual.

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Correct score

    Newcastle 2-1 Palace

    9% chance11.11

    The model's likeliest scoreline. Correct-score bets pay big but rarely land, so keep the stake light.

Team shape

How will the two teams set up?

Official line-ups are announced roughly an hour before kick-off.

At home

Newcastle United

Newcastle are organised and tough to break down, and they tend to earn results at St James' Park by controlling the middle of the pitch.

Away

Crystal Palace

Palace are a pragmatic mid-table team: sturdy out of possession on the road at St James' Park, but short of the creativity to dictate a game.

What could change

What would change the King Exchange prediction?

Team news and match events that would move our numbers.

  1. If Newcastle field a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would take several points off their win chance. Line-ups drop an hour before kick-off.

  2. If Palace score first

    The favourite must chase, and both the draw and the upset become far more likely.

  3. If a red card arrives in the first hour

    Playing with ten men rewrites the expected-goals picture, whichever team it hits.

The long read

Newcastle vs Palace match preview

Crystal Palace travel to St James' Park for a 2026/27 Premier League fixture that King Exchange grades as a coin flip. We project 1.43 xG for Newcastle and 1.25 for Palace. Over thousands of simulated games, Newcastle come out on top in 41% of them. An early goal would transform the game for Palace. Sides chasing a result leave space, and that is where upsets happen.

“Sides chasing a result leave space, and that is where upsets happen.”

Fixture timeline

Fixture timeline: Newcastle and Palace

Rest days and the next game for both clubs, taken from the official Premier League fixture list.

Newcastle play 8 days after their match away at Villa on 15 May. Next they are away at Hull 7 days after this game. Premier League game 37 of 38.

Palace play 8 days after their match at home to Brighton on 15 May. Next they are at home to Leeds 7 days after this game. Premier League game 37 of 38.

The two clubs already met at Selhurst Park on Sun, 25 Oct 2026, so this is the return fixture.

  1. 15 MayVilla vs NewcastleVilla Park
  2. 15 MayPalace vs BrightonSelhurst Park
  3. 23 May · this matchNewcastle vs PalaceSt James' Park
  4. 30 MayHull vs NewcastleMKM Stadium
  5. 30 MayPalace vs LeedsSelhurst Park

Keep reading

More KingExch predictions for Newcastle and Palace

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FAQ · 10

Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

Need a quick answer? Message King Exchange support on WhatsApp

Who will win Newcastle vs Palace?

King Exchange expects Newcastle United to win. The goals model rates Newcastle 41%, the draw 27% and Palace 32%, which we grade as a coin flip.

What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace?

Our projected score is 2-1, with 0-0 at half-time. The most frequent exact score across our simulations is 1-1, at 13%.

What are the fair odds for Newcastle vs Palace?

By our numbers: Newcastle 2.44, draw 3.70, Palace 3.13. Any back price shorter than that offers no value on the King Exchange model.

What time does Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace kick off in India?

19:30 IST in India (UK date Sun, 23 May 2027, 15:00 UK time), at St James' Park in Newcastle. Kick-offs can be moved for TV, so recheck nearer the day.

Why could Palace upset Newcastle in Newcastle vs Palace?

32% to win plus 27% for the draw: 59% that Newcastle do not win. Counter-attacks: a favourite chasing the game leaves space behind. An early goal would force Newcastle to chase.

How should I trade Newcastle vs Palace on King Exchange?

By King Exchange numbers, back Newcastle United at 2.44 or longer, or lay Crystal Palace at 3.13 or shorter. A lay wins whenever Crystal Palace fail to win; at 3.13, a ₹100 lay carries ₹213 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Newcastle vs Palace match kaun jeetega?

King Exchange ke goals model mein Newcastle United aage hain: Newcastle 41%, draw 27%, Palace 32%. Sabse sambhavit score 2-1 hai. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Where can I watch Newcastle vs Palace?

Indian broadcast rights change from season to season, so check the official Premier League listings closer to the day.

Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Palace?

We rate both teams to score at 54%, so the lean is yes. Over 2.5 goals sits at 50%.

How many goals are expected in Newcastle vs Palace?

2.7 expected goals in all. The likeliest goal count is 2, and a 0-0 shows up 8% of the time.

Dates and kick-offs follow the official Premier League fixture list and can change for TV or cup fixtures. The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the King Exchange model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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Sources and official information

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