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CricketIndia tour of New Zealand, 2026 · game 11 of 12

New Zealand vs India 1st Test prediction

49%New Zealand · fair 2.0451%India · fair 1.96
Start
Start time to be confirmed
Date
Thu, 26 Nov 2026
Venue
Basin Reserve, Wellington
Format
Test match · grassy, seam-friendly pitch
By King Exchange Cricket Desk, match analysisUpdated

The case

Who wins NZ vs IND, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

India

  • Rated 51% by King Exchange, which is a fair back price of 1.96.
  • A projected 4-run cushion in the day-one total (263 to 259).
  • A grassy, seam-friendly pitch that rewards the side with deeper resources among the quicks.
  • Mohammed Siraj, their likeliest match-winner (dangerous with the new ball).

How they could upset it

New Zealand

  • 49% to win, which is close to an even chance.
  • New Zealand are at home, an edge models often underrate.
  • Winning the toss on this pitch would hand them a few extra points.
  • Tim Southee can win a game single-handed (dangerous with the new ball).

By the numbers

How many runs will New Zealand and India score?

Projected session-by-session runs on day one at Basin Reserve.

  • India rated 51%, a coin flip. Back them only at 1.96 or longer.
  • A pitch that suits seamers, with India projected to post the higher total.
  • New Zealand have home conditions in their favour.
KingExch pick
India
Format
Test match
Pitch
grassy, seam-friendly
Suits
Seamers
Session 1
Session 2
Session 3
New Zealand IndiaDay one: NZ 235-283 · IND 239-287

Deciding factors

Which factors will settle this match?

The pitch first, then the two factors carrying the most weight in this fixture.

  1. Pitch read

    Grass cover and early moisture mean the new ball should talk. The first 15 overs carry the most risk, and batting gets clearly easier once that spell is survived. New Zealand play on surfaces like this week in, week out.

    Edge: New Zealand

  2. Even batting

    The two batting orders rate almost the same (4 runs apart), which leaves the bowling and the toss to settle it.

    Edge: Even

  3. Toss call

    Send the other side in. Early assistance for the seamers is too good to hand over.

    Edge: Toss winner

How to play it

How should you back or lay NZ vs IND on King Exchange?

Fair prices for both teams, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back51% chance

India1.96

Accept 1.96 or longer. A ₹100 back at 1.96 pays ₹196 including your stake.

Lay49% chance

New Zealand2.04

Lay only at 2.04 or shorter. At 2.04, a ₹100 lay puts ₹104 at risk to win ₹100.

Three ways to play it · risk rises left to right

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Match odds

    Back India

    51% chance1.96

    Our most likely outcome. Once the back price drops below 1.96, the value is gone.

  2. ValueBalanced

    New Zealand day-one total

    Over 243.5

    61% chance1.64

    We project about 259, comfortably clear of 243.5, so a slow start can still land it.

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Top team batter

    Shreyas Iyer (India)

    20% chance5.00

    Turns fifties into hundreds. A long-odds market, so keep the stake small.

Match-winners

Who can swing New Zealand vs India?

Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to settle the result. XIs are named at the toss.

New Zealand

  • Tim Southee91

    Dangerous with the new ball

  • Glenn Phillips84

    Turns fifties into hundreds

India

  • Mohammed Siraj94

    Dangerous with the new ball

  • Shreyas Iyer87

    Turns fifties into hundreds

What could change

What would change the King Exchange prediction?

Team news and conditions that would move our numbers before the first ball.

  1. If Mohammed Siraj misses out

    India would drop by about five points, turning this into a coin flip.

  2. If New Zealand win the toss

    On a pitch where the toss counts, that alone shifts a couple of points to New Zealand.

  3. If rain costs a day or more

    A draw becomes the likeliest result, and our win call loses most of its value.

The long read

New Zealand vs India match preview

With 1 game of India tour of New Zealand, 2026 still to play, match 11 can tilt the series. King Exchange rates India as the better-equipped side for a grassy, seam-friendly Test surface, at 51%. New Zealand are on home soil, and the model adds a few percentage points for that. New Zealand's best route to an upset is the first hour. A strong start would make our 49% for them look too low.

On the toss: Send the other side in. Early assistance for the seamers is too good to hand over.

“A strong start would make our 49% for them look too low.”

Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.

Fixture timeline

Fixture timeline: 1st Test

Rest days, travel and what comes next in India tour of New Zealand, 2026.

The 1st Test is staged at Basin Reserve in Wellington on Thu, 26 Nov 2026, game 11 of 12 in the series.

The 5th ODI comes 3 days before this game at Bay Oval in Mount Maunganui, so the squads travel to Wellington in between. That is enough recovery for both sides to field their first-choice XIs.

Next on the calendar: the 2nd Test, 4 days after this game at Hagley Oval in Christchurch.

  1. 23 Nov5th ODI: New Zealand vs IndiaBay Oval
  2. 26 Nov · this match1st Test: New Zealand vs IndiaBasin Reserve
  3. 30 Nov2nd Test: New Zealand vs IndiaHagley Oval

Keep reading

More KingExch cricket predictions

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FAQ · 10

NZ vs IND 1st Test FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

Need a quick answer? Message King Exchange support on WhatsApp

Who will win the New Zealand vs India 1st Test?

King Exchange expects India to win, rating them 51% against 49% for New Zealand, which is a coin flip. The pick blends team ratings, home advantage and how a grassy, seam-friendly surface at Basin Reserve should play.

What are the fair odds for India in the NZ vs IND 1st Test?

A 51% rating converts to fair decimal odds of 1.96 for India and 2.04 for New Zealand. If the exchange back price is shorter than that, the bet offers no value by our numbers.

What time does the NZ vs IND 1st Test start in India?

The series window places it on Thu, 26 Nov 2026 (start time to be confirmed) at Basin Reserve, Wellington, but the board has not yet confirmed the date or start time. King Exchange updates this page as soon as it does.

What is the pitch report for Basin Reserve in the NZ vs IND 1st Test?

We expect a grassy, seam-friendly surface that should favour the quicks. Grass cover and early moisture mean the new ball should talk. The first 15 overs carry the most risk, and batting gets clearly easier once that spell is survived.

Should the captain bat or bowl first in the NZ vs IND 1st Test?

Send the other side in. Early assistance for the seamers is too good to hand over. The toss takes place about 30 minutes before the start, when both XIs are named.

Can New Zealand win the NZ vs IND 1st Test?

Yes, though they need early wickets or a match-winning knock. King Exchange gives New Zealand a 49% chance, and that climbs if they win a toss that matters or India change their best XI.

Why could New Zealand upset India in the NZ vs IND 1st Test?

49% to win, which is close to an even chance. New Zealand are at home, an edge models often underrate. Winning the toss on this pitch would hand them a few extra points. Tim Southee can win a game single-handed (dangerous with the new ball).

How should I trade the New Zealand vs India 1st Test on King Exchange?

By King Exchange numbers, back India at 1.96 or longer, or lay New Zealand at 2.04 or shorter. A lay wins whenever New Zealand fail to win; at 2.04, a ₹100 lay carries ₹104 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

New Zealand vs India 1st Test match kaun jeetega?

King Exchange ke model ke mutabik India ka palda bhaari hai: 51%, jabki New Zealand ka 49%. Match Thu, 26 Nov 2026 (start time to be confirmed) shuru hoga. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

NZ vs IND 1st Test ke liye Wellington ki pitch report kya hai?

Humara andaaza hai ki pitch grassy, seam-friendly rahegi, yaani tez gendbaazon ko shuruaat mein swing aur seam milega. Toss match se lagbhag aadha ghanta pehle hoga.

The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the King Exchange model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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