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CricketIndia tour of New Zealand, 2026 · game 10 of 12

New Zealand vs India 5th ODI prediction

54%New Zealand · fair 1.8546%India · fair 2.17
Start
Start time to be confirmed
Date
Mon, 23 Nov 2026
Venue
Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui
Format
ODI · 50 overs · flat, run-heavy pitch
By King Exchange Cricket Desk, match analysisUpdated

The case

Who wins NZ vs IND, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

New Zealand

  • Rated 54% by King Exchange, which is a fair back price of 1.85.
  • A projected 4-run cushion in the first-innings total (352 to 348).
  • Home conditions: New Zealand know a flat, run-heavy surface like this better than anyone.
  • Kane Williamson, their likeliest match-winner (steady hand in a chase).

How they could upset it

India

  • 46% to win, which is close to an even chance.
  • One big session can flip the momentum of a series.
  • Rain or a shortened game adds randomness, and randomness helps the underdog.
  • Ravindra Jadeja can win a game single-handed (balances the xi).

By the numbers

How many runs will New Zealand and India score?

Projected runs in each phase of the first innings at Bay Oval.

  • New Zealand rated 54%, a slight lean. Back them only at 1.85 or longer.
  • A pitch that suits batters, with New Zealand projected to post the higher total.
  • New Zealand have home conditions in their favour.
KingExch pick
New Zealand
Format
ODI · 50 overs
Pitch
flat, run-heavy
Suits
Batters
Powerplay (0-10)
Middle Overs (11-40)
Death Overs (41-50)
New Zealand IndiaInnings: NZ 327-377 · IND 324-372

Deciding factors

Which factors will settle this match?

The pitch first, then the two factors carrying the most weight in this fixture.

  1. Pitch read

    Batters can trust the bounce from ball one. Bowlers need sharp plans, because anything overpitched or wide is going to the boundary. Both teams will lean on the batters, so the deeper attack counts.

    Edge: Even

  2. Even batting

    Just 4 runs split the projected totals, so the batting units are close to level. One big individual knock is the likeliest tiebreaker.

    Edge: Even

  3. Series pressure

    A win puts New Zealand in charge with 2 games to go. A defeat hands India the momentum.

    Edge: New Zealand

How to play it

How should you back or lay NZ vs IND on King Exchange?

Fair prices for both teams, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back54% chance

New Zealand1.85

Accept 1.85 or longer. A ₹100 back at 1.85 pays ₹185 including your stake.

Lay46% chance

India2.17

Lay only at 2.17 or shorter. At 2.17, a ₹100 lay puts ₹117 at risk to win ₹100.

Three ways to play it · risk rises left to right

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Match odds

    Back New Zealand

    54% chance1.85

    The headline call. Worth backing only at 1.85 or longer.

  2. ValueBalanced

    New Zealand first-innings total

    Over 335.5

    57% chance1.75

    A 335.5 line leaves roughly 16 runs of headroom against our 352 projection.

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Top team batter

    Kane Williamson (New Zealand)

    25% chance4.00

    Steady hand in a chase. A long-odds market, so keep the stake small.

Match-winners

Who can swing New Zealand vs India?

Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to settle the result. XIs are named at the toss.

New Zealand

  • Kane Williamson93

    Steady hand in a chase

  • Rachin Ravindra84

    Balances the XI

India

  • Ravindra Jadeja90

    Balances the XI

  • Mohammed Shami95

    Trusted at the end of the innings

What could change

What would change the King Exchange prediction?

Team news and conditions that would move our numbers before the first ball.

  1. If Kane Williamson misses out

    New Zealand would drop by about five points, turning this into a coin flip.

  2. If the surface looks drier or greener than expected at the toss

    More help for the bowlers would narrow the gap between the two batting orders.

  3. If rain cuts the overs

    A shorter game adds randomness, which works in the underdog's favour.

The long read

New Zealand vs India match preview

Game 10 of 12 is where India tour of New Zealand, 2026 begins to take shape. King Exchange rates New Zealand as the better-equipped side for a flat, run-heavy ODI surface, at 54%. New Zealand are on home soil, and the model adds a few percentage points for that. At 46%, India are far from out of it, but they need their best players to deliver on the same day.

On the toss: Batting or fielding first offers no real edge while the surface stays this good.

“At 46%, India are far from out of it, but they need their best players to deliver on the same day.”

Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.

Fixture timeline

Fixture timeline: 5th ODI

Rest days, travel and what comes next in India tour of New Zealand, 2026.

The 5th ODI is staged at Bay Oval in Mount Maunganui on Mon, 23 Nov 2026, game 10 of 12 in the series.

The 4th ODI comes 4 days before this game at this same ground, so both sides already know how the surface behaves. That is enough recovery for both sides to field their first-choice XIs.

Next on the calendar: the 1st Test, 3 days after this game at Basin Reserve in Wellington.

More from Bay Oval on the King Exchange schedule: 4th ODI: New Zealand vs India (19 Nov), 1st Test: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka (12 Feb) (2 fixtures in total).

  1. 19 Nov4th ODI: New Zealand vs IndiaBay Oval
  2. 23 Nov · this match5th ODI: New Zealand vs IndiaBay Oval
  3. 26 Nov1st Test: New Zealand vs IndiaBasin Reserve

Keep reading

More KingExch cricket predictions

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FAQ · 10

NZ vs IND 5th ODI FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

Need a quick answer? Message King Exchange support on WhatsApp

Who will win the New Zealand vs India 5th ODI?

King Exchange expects New Zealand to win, rating them 54% against 46% for India, which is a slight lean. The pick blends team ratings, home advantage and how a flat, run-heavy surface at Bay Oval should play.

What are the fair odds for New Zealand in the NZ vs IND 5th ODI?

A 54% rating converts to fair decimal odds of 1.85 for New Zealand and 2.17 for India. If the exchange back price is shorter than that, the bet offers no value by our numbers.

What time does the NZ vs IND 5th ODI start in India?

The series window places it on Mon, 23 Nov 2026 (start time to be confirmed) at Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui, but the board has not yet confirmed the date or start time. King Exchange updates this page as soon as it does.

What is the pitch report for Bay Oval in the NZ vs IND 5th ODI?

We expect a flat, run-heavy surface that should favour the batters. Batters can trust the bounce from ball one. Bowlers need sharp plans, because anything overpitched or wide is going to the boundary.

Should the captain bat or bowl first in the NZ vs IND 5th ODI?

Batting or fielding first offers no real edge while the surface stays this good. The toss takes place about 30 minutes before the start, when both XIs are named.

Can India win the NZ vs IND 5th ODI?

Yes, though they need early wickets or a match-winning knock. King Exchange gives India a 46% chance, and that climbs if they win a toss that matters or New Zealand change their best XI.

Why could India upset New Zealand in the NZ vs IND 5th ODI?

46% to win, which is close to an even chance. One big session can flip the momentum of a series. Rain or a shortened game adds randomness, and randomness helps the underdog. Ravindra Jadeja can win a game single-handed (balances the xi).

How should I trade the New Zealand vs India 5th ODI on King Exchange?

By King Exchange numbers, back New Zealand at 1.85 or longer, or lay India at 2.17 or shorter. A lay wins whenever India fail to win; at 2.17, a ₹100 lay carries ₹117 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

New Zealand vs India 5th ODI match kaun jeetega?

King Exchange ke model ke mutabik New Zealand ka palda bhaari hai: 54%, jabki India ka 46%. Match Mon, 23 Nov 2026 (start time to be confirmed) shuru hoga. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

NZ vs IND 5th ODI ke liye Mount Maunganui ki pitch report kya hai?

Humara andaaza hai ki pitch flat, run-heavy rahegi, yaani batting ke liye badhiya pitch hai, bada score ban sakta hai. Toss match se lagbhag aadha ghanta pehle hoga.

The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the King Exchange model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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