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CricketIndia tour of New Zealand, 2026 · game 9 of 12

New Zealand vs India 4th ODI prediction

53%New Zealand · fair 1.8947%India · fair 2.13
Start
Start time to be confirmed
Date
Thu, 19 Nov 2026
Venue
Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui
Format
ODI · 50 overs · flat, run-heavy pitch
By King Exchange Cricket Desk, match analysisUpdated

The case

Who wins NZ vs IND, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

New Zealand

  • Rated 53% by King Exchange, which is a fair back price of 1.89.
  • Rated higher overall by King Exchange, even though the projected totals lean the other way (347 to 348).
  • Home conditions: New Zealand know a flat, run-heavy surface like this better than anyone.
  • Daryl Mitchell, their likeliest match-winner (balances the xi).

How they could upset it

India

  • 47% to win, which is close to an even chance.
  • One big session can flip the momentum of a series.
  • Rain or a shortened game adds randomness, and randomness helps the underdog.
  • Mohammed Siraj can win a game single-handed (trusted at the end of the innings).

By the numbers

How many runs will New Zealand and India score?

Projected runs in each phase of the first innings at Bay Oval.

  • New Zealand rated 53%, a slight lean. Back them only at 1.89 or longer.
  • A pitch that suits batters, with India projected to post the higher total.
  • New Zealand have home conditions in their favour.
KingExch pick
New Zealand
Format
ODI · 50 overs
Pitch
flat, run-heavy
Suits
Batters
Powerplay (0-10)
Middle Overs (11-40)
Death Overs (41-50)
New Zealand IndiaInnings: NZ 322-372 · IND 323-373

Deciding factors

Which factors will settle this match?

The pitch first, then the two factors carrying the most weight in this fixture.

  1. Pitch read

    Batters can trust the bounce from ball one. Bowlers need sharp plans, because anything overpitched or wide is going to the boundary. Both teams will lean on the batters, so the deeper attack counts.

    Edge: Even

  2. Series pressure

    A win puts New Zealand in charge with 3 games to go. A defeat hands India the momentum.

    Edge: New Zealand

  3. Even batting

    The two batting orders rate almost the same (1 runs apart), which leaves the bowling and the toss to settle it.

    Edge: Even

How to play it

How should you back or lay NZ vs IND on King Exchange?

Fair prices for both teams, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back53% chance

New Zealand1.89

Accept 1.89 or longer. A ₹100 back at 1.89 pays ₹189 including your stake.

Lay47% chance

India2.13

Lay only at 2.13 or shorter. At 2.13, a ₹100 lay puts ₹113 at risk to win ₹100.

Three ways to play it · risk rises left to right

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Match odds

    Back New Zealand

    53% chance1.89

    Our most likely outcome. Once the back price drops below 1.89, the value is gone.

  2. ValueBalanced

    New Zealand first-innings total

    Over 330.5

    56% chance1.79

    We project about 347, comfortably clear of 330.5, so a slow start can still land it.

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Top team batter

    Daryl Mitchell (New Zealand)

    20% chance5.00

    Balances the XI. A long-odds market, so keep the stake small.

Match-winners

Who can swing New Zealand vs India?

Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to settle the result. XIs are named at the toss.

New Zealand

  • Daryl Mitchell85

    Balances the XI

  • Finn Allen83

    Fast starter at the top

India

  • Mohammed Siraj92

    Trusted at the end of the innings

  • Kuldeep Yadav85

    Takes wickets through the middle

What could change

What would change the King Exchange prediction?

Team news and conditions that would move our numbers before the first ball.

  1. If Daryl Mitchell misses out

    New Zealand would drop by about five points, turning this into a coin flip.

  2. If the surface looks drier or greener than expected at the toss

    More help for the bowlers would narrow the gap between the two batting orders.

  3. If rain cuts the overs

    A shorter game adds randomness, which works in the underdog's favour.

The long read

New Zealand vs India match preview

With 3 games of India tour of New Zealand, 2026 still to play, match 9 can tilt the series. New Zealand rate 53% because both their batting and their attack fit these flat, run-heavy conditions a little better. New Zealand are on home soil, and the model adds a few percentage points for that. India's best route to an upset is the first hour. A strong start would make our 47% for them look too low.

On the toss: Whatever the captain picks, both sides should cash in on the runs available.

“A strong start would make our 47% for them look too low.”

Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.

Fixture timeline

Fixture timeline: 4th ODI

Rest days, travel and what comes next in India tour of New Zealand, 2026.

The 4th ODI is staged at Bay Oval in Mount Maunganui on Thu, 19 Nov 2026, game 9 of 12 in the series.

The 3rd ODI comes 3 days before this game at Seddon Park in Hamilton, so the squads travel to Mount Maunganui in between. That is enough recovery for both sides to field their first-choice XIs.

Next on the calendar: the 5th ODI, 4 days after this game, at the same ground.

More from Bay Oval on the King Exchange schedule: 5th ODI: New Zealand vs India (23 Nov), 1st Test: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka (12 Feb) (2 fixtures in total).

  1. 16 Nov3rd ODI: New Zealand vs IndiaSeddon Park
  2. 19 Nov · this match4th ODI: New Zealand vs IndiaBay Oval
  3. 23 Nov5th ODI: New Zealand vs IndiaBay Oval

Keep reading

More KingExch cricket predictions

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FAQ · 10

NZ vs IND 4th ODI FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

Need a quick answer? Message King Exchange support on WhatsApp

Who will win the New Zealand vs India 4th ODI?

King Exchange expects New Zealand to win, rating them 53% against 47% for India, which is a slight lean. The pick blends team ratings, home advantage and how a flat, run-heavy surface at Bay Oval should play.

What are the fair odds for New Zealand in the NZ vs IND 4th ODI?

A 53% rating converts to fair decimal odds of 1.89 for New Zealand and 2.13 for India. If the exchange back price is shorter than that, the bet offers no value by our numbers.

What time does the NZ vs IND 4th ODI start in India?

The series window places it on Thu, 19 Nov 2026 (start time to be confirmed) at Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui, but the board has not yet confirmed the date or start time. King Exchange updates this page as soon as it does.

What is the pitch report for Bay Oval in the NZ vs IND 4th ODI?

We expect a flat, run-heavy surface that should favour the batters. Batters can trust the bounce from ball one. Bowlers need sharp plans, because anything overpitched or wide is going to the boundary.

Should the captain bat or bowl first in the NZ vs IND 4th ODI?

Whatever the captain picks, both sides should cash in on the runs available. The toss takes place about 30 minutes before the start, when both XIs are named.

Can India win the NZ vs IND 4th ODI?

Yes, though they need early wickets or a match-winning knock. King Exchange gives India a 47% chance, and that climbs if they win a toss that matters or New Zealand change their best XI.

Why could India upset New Zealand in the NZ vs IND 4th ODI?

47% to win, which is close to an even chance. One big session can flip the momentum of a series. Rain or a shortened game adds randomness, and randomness helps the underdog. Mohammed Siraj can win a game single-handed (trusted at the end of the innings).

How should I trade the New Zealand vs India 4th ODI on King Exchange?

By King Exchange numbers, back New Zealand at 1.89 or longer, or lay India at 2.13 or shorter. A lay wins whenever India fail to win; at 2.13, a ₹100 lay carries ₹113 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

New Zealand vs India 4th ODI match kaun jeetega?

King Exchange ke model ke mutabik New Zealand ka palda bhaari hai: 53%, jabki India ka 47%. Match Thu, 19 Nov 2026 (start time to be confirmed) shuru hoga. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

NZ vs IND 4th ODI ke liye Mount Maunganui ki pitch report kya hai?

Humara andaaza hai ki pitch flat, run-heavy rahegi, yaani batting ke liye badhiya pitch hai, bada score ban sakta hai. Toss match se lagbhag aadha ghanta pehle hoga.

The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the King Exchange model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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