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CricketEngland tour of South Africa, 2026-27 · game 5 of 6

South Africa vs England 2nd ODI prediction

57%South Africa · fair 1.7543%England · fair 2.33
Start
Start time to be confirmed
Date
Sat, 09 Jan 2027
Venue
Mangaung Oval, Bloemfontein
Format
ODI · 50 overs · flat, run-heavy pitch
By King Exchange Cricket Desk, match analysisUpdated

The case

Who wins SA vs ENG, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

South Africa

  • Rated 57% by King Exchange, which is a fair back price of 1.75.
  • A projected 17-run cushion in the first-innings total (349 to 332).
  • Home conditions: South Africa know a flat, run-heavy surface like this better than anyone.
  • David Miller, their likeliest match-winner (steady hand in a chase).

How they could upset it

England

  • 43% to win, which is close to an even chance.
  • One big session can flip the momentum of a series.
  • Rain or a shortened game adds randomness, and randomness helps the underdog.
  • Phil Salt can win a game single-handed (steady hand in a chase).

By the numbers

How many runs will South Africa and England score?

Projected runs in each phase of the first innings at Mangaung Oval.

  • South Africa rated 57%, a clear lean. Back them only at 1.75 or longer.
  • A pitch that suits batters, with South Africa projected to post the higher total.
  • South Africa have home conditions in their favour.
KingExch pick
South Africa
Format
ODI · 50 overs
Pitch
flat, run-heavy
Suits
Batters
Powerplay (0-10)
Middle Overs (11-40)
Death Overs (41-50)
South Africa EnglandInnings: SA 325-373 · ENG 308-356

Deciding factors

Which factors will settle this match?

The pitch first, then the two factors carrying the most weight in this fixture.

  1. Pitch read

    A batting deck: consistent bounce, good carry and little sideways movement. Death bowling and change-ups will set how high the scores go. Both teams will lean on the batters, so the deeper attack counts.

    Edge: Even

  2. Series pressure

    A win puts South Africa in charge with 1 game to go. A defeat hands England the momentum.

    Edge: South Africa

  3. Toss call

    Whatever the captain picks, both sides should cash in on the runs available.

    Edge: Even

How to play it

How should you back or lay SA vs ENG on King Exchange?

Fair prices for both teams, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back57% chance

South Africa1.75

Accept 1.75 or longer. A ₹100 back at 1.75 pays ₹175 including your stake.

Lay43% chance

England2.33

Lay only at 2.33 or shorter. At 2.33, a ₹100 lay puts ₹133 at risk to win ₹100.

Three ways to play it · risk rises left to right

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Match odds

    Back South Africa

    57% chance1.75

    Our most likely outcome. Once the back price drops below 1.75, the value is gone.

  2. ValueBalanced

    South Africa first-innings total

    Over 333.5

    59% chance1.69

    We project about 349, comfortably clear of 333.5, so a slow start can still land it.

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Top team batter

    David Miller (South Africa)

    24% chance4.17

    Steady hand in a chase. A long-odds market, so keep the stake small.

Match-winners

Who can swing South Africa vs England?

Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to settle the result. XIs are named at the toss.

South Africa

  • David Miller91

    Steady hand in a chase

  • Quinton de Kock88

    Fast starter at the top

England

  • Phil Salt89

    Steady hand in a chase

  • Ben Stokes82

    Balances the XI

What could change

What would change the King Exchange prediction?

Team news and conditions that would move our numbers before the first ball.

  1. If David Miller misses out

    South Africa would drop by about five points, turning this into a slight lean.

  2. If the surface looks drier or greener than expected at the toss

    More help for the bowlers would narrow the gap between the two batting orders.

  3. If rain cuts the overs

    A shorter game adds randomness, which works in the underdog's favour.

The long read

South Africa vs England match preview

With 1 game of England tour of South Africa, 2026-27 still to play, match 5 can tilt the series. South Africa rate 57% because both their batting and their attack fit these flat, run-heavy conditions a little better. South Africa are on home soil, and the model adds a few percentage points for that. At 43%, England are far from out of it, but they need their best players to deliver on the same day.

On the toss: Whatever the captain picks, both sides should cash in on the runs available.

“At 43%, England are far from out of it, but they need their best players to deliver on the same day.”

Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.

Fixture timeline

Fixture timeline: 2nd ODI

Rest days, travel and what comes next in England tour of South Africa, 2026-27.

The 2nd ODI is staged at Mangaung Oval in Bloemfontein on Sat, 09 Jan 2027, game 5 of 6 in the series.

The 1st ODI comes 6 days before this game at Boland Park in Paarl, so the squads travel to Bloemfontein in between. A long gap resets both dressing rooms, so momentum from the last game counts for less than usual.

Next on the calendar: the 3rd ODI, 6 days after this game, at the same ground.

More from Mangaung Oval on the King Exchange schedule: 3rd ODI: South Africa vs England (15 Jan) (1 fixture in total).

  1. 03 Jan1st ODI: South Africa vs EnglandBoland Park
  2. 09 Jan · this match2nd ODI: South Africa vs EnglandMangaung Oval
  3. 15 Jan3rd ODI: South Africa vs EnglandMangaung Oval

Keep reading

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FAQ · 10

SA vs ENG 2nd ODI FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

Need a quick answer? Message King Exchange support on WhatsApp

Who will win the South Africa vs England 2nd ODI?

King Exchange expects South Africa to win, rating them 57% against 43% for England, which is a clear lean. The pick blends team ratings, home advantage and how a flat, run-heavy surface at Mangaung Oval should play.

What are the fair odds for South Africa in the SA vs ENG 2nd ODI?

A 57% rating converts to fair decimal odds of 1.75 for South Africa and 2.33 for England. If the exchange back price is shorter than that, the bet offers no value by our numbers.

What time does the SA vs ENG 2nd ODI start in India?

The series window places it on Sat, 09 Jan 2027 (start time to be confirmed) at Mangaung Oval, Bloemfontein, but the board has not yet confirmed the date or start time. King Exchange updates this page as soon as it does.

What is the pitch report for Mangaung Oval in the SA vs ENG 2nd ODI?

We expect a flat, run-heavy surface that should favour the batters. A batting deck: consistent bounce, good carry and little sideways movement. Death bowling and change-ups will set how high the scores go.

Should the captain bat or bowl first in the SA vs ENG 2nd ODI?

Whatever the captain picks, both sides should cash in on the runs available. The toss takes place about 30 minutes before the start, when both XIs are named.

Can England win the SA vs ENG 2nd ODI?

Yes, though they need early wickets or a match-winning knock. King Exchange gives England a 43% chance, and that climbs if they win a toss that matters or South Africa change their best XI.

Why could England upset South Africa in the SA vs ENG 2nd ODI?

43% to win, which is close to an even chance. One big session can flip the momentum of a series. Rain or a shortened game adds randomness, and randomness helps the underdog. Phil Salt can win a game single-handed (steady hand in a chase).

How should I trade the South Africa vs England 2nd ODI on King Exchange?

By King Exchange numbers, back South Africa at 1.75 or longer, or lay England at 2.33 or shorter. A lay wins whenever England fail to win; at 2.33, a ₹100 lay carries ₹133 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

South Africa vs England 2nd ODI match kaun jeetega?

King Exchange ke model ke mutabik South Africa ka palda bhaari hai: 57%, jabki England ka 43%. Match Sat, 09 Jan 2027 (start time to be confirmed) shuru hoga. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

SA vs ENG 2nd ODI ke liye Bloemfontein ki pitch report kya hai?

Humara andaaza hai ki pitch flat, run-heavy rahegi, yaani batting ke liye badhiya pitch hai, bada score ban sakta hai. Toss match se lagbhag aadha ghanta pehle hoga.

The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the King Exchange model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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