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CricketAustralia vs England 150th Anniversary One-off Test, 2027 · game 1 of 1

Australia vs England One-off Test prediction

59%Australia · fair 1.6941%England · fair 2.44
Start
Start time to be confirmed
Date
Thu, 11 Mar 2027
Venue
Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne
Format
Test match · flat, batting-friendly pitch
By King Exchange Cricket Desk, match analysisUpdated

The case

Who wins AUS vs ENG, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

Australia

  • Rated 59% by King Exchange, which is a fair back price of 1.69.
  • A projected 25-run cushion in the day-one total (291 to 266).
  • A flat, batting-friendly pitch that rewards the side with deeper resources among the batters.
  • Mitchell Starc, their likeliest match-winner (hits the deck hard).

How they could upset it

England

  • 41% to win, which is close to an even chance.
  • No form from this tour yet, so the favourites' edge is untested.
  • Lost time to weather pushes a Test towards a draw, which suits the side under pressure.
  • Mark Wood can win a game single-handed (hits the deck hard).

By the numbers

How many runs will Australia and England score?

Projected session-by-session runs on day one at Melbourne Cricket Ground.

  • Australia rated 59%, a clear lean. Back them only at 1.69 or longer.
  • A pitch that suits batters, with Australia projected to post the higher total.
  • A neutral venue, so the team that adjusts quicker has the advantage.
KingExch pick
Australia
Format
Test match
Pitch
flat, batting-friendly
Suits
Batters
Session 1
Session 2
Session 3
Australia EnglandDay one: AUS 267-315 · ENG 241-291

Deciding factors

Which factors will settle this match?

The pitch first, then the two factors carrying the most weight in this fixture.

  1. Pitch read

    Firm, true and quick, with short boundaries and a rapid outfield. An under-par total will not hold up on this surface. Both teams will lean on the batters, so the deeper attack counts.

    Edge: Even

  2. Toss call

    Whatever the captain picks, both sides should cash in on the runs available.

    Edge: Even

  3. Batting edge

    Australia project roughly 25 runs higher in the day-one total. Over a Test, a margin like that turns tight games into comfortable ones.

    Edge: Australia

How to play it

How should you back or lay AUS vs ENG on King Exchange?

Fair prices for both teams, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back59% chance

Australia1.69

Accept 1.69 or longer. A ₹100 back at 1.69 pays ₹169 including your stake.

Lay41% chance

England2.44

Lay only at 2.44 or shorter. At 2.44, a ₹100 lay puts ₹144 at risk to win ₹100.

Three ways to play it · risk rises left to right

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Match odds

    Back Australia

    59% chance1.69

    The headline call. Worth backing only at 1.69 or longer.

  2. ValueBalanced

    Australia day-one total

    Over 275.5

    61% chance1.64

    A 275.5 line leaves roughly 15 runs of headroom against our 291 projection.

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Top team batter

    Travis Head (Australia)

    23% chance4.35

    Turns fifties into hundreds. A long-odds market, so keep the stake small.

Match-winners

Who can swing Australia vs England?

Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to settle the result. XIs are named at the toss.

Australia

  • Mitchell Starc80

    Hits the deck hard

  • Travis Head87

    Turns fifties into hundreds

England

  • Mark Wood89

    Hits the deck hard

  • Joe Root97

    Turns fifties into hundreds

What could change

What would change the King Exchange prediction?

Team news and conditions that would move our numbers before the first ball.

  1. If Mitchell Starc misses out

    Australia would drop by about five points, turning this into a slight lean.

  2. If the surface looks drier or greener than expected at the toss

    More help for the bowlers would narrow the gap between the two batting orders.

  3. If rain costs a day or more

    A draw becomes the likeliest result, and our win call loses most of its value.

The long read

Australia vs England match preview

It is a one-off fixture with no series to manage and no chance to bounce back, so both teams should name their strongest XI. The King Exchange model leans to Australia at 59%, driven mostly by squad depth and how Melbourne Cricket Ground has behaved in recent seasons. Neither team is at home, so whoever reads Melbourne Cricket Ground quicker takes the advantage. At 41%, England are far from out of it, but they need their best players to deliver on the same day.

On the toss: Whatever the captain picks, both sides should cash in on the runs available.

“At 41%, England are far from out of it, but they need their best players to deliver on the same day.”

Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.

Fixture timeline

Fixture timeline: One-off Test

Rest days, travel and what comes next in Australia vs England 150th Anniversary One-off Test, 2027.

This one-off Test is staged at Melbourne Cricket Ground in Melbourne on Thu, 11 Mar 2027.

More from Melbourne Cricket Ground on the King Exchange schedule: 1st T20I: Australia vs England (21 Nov), 3rd Test: Australia vs New Zealand (29 Dec) (2 fixtures in total).

Keep reading

More KingExch cricket predictions

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FAQ · 10

AUS vs ENG One-off Test FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

Need a quick answer? Message King Exchange support on WhatsApp

Who will win the Australia vs England One-off Test?

King Exchange expects Australia to win, rating them 59% against 41% for England, which is a clear lean. The pick blends team ratings, home advantage and how a flat, batting-friendly surface at Melbourne Cricket Ground should play.

What are the fair odds for Australia in the AUS vs ENG One-off Test?

A 59% rating converts to fair decimal odds of 1.69 for Australia and 2.44 for England. If the exchange back price is shorter than that, the bet offers no value by our numbers.

What time does the AUS vs ENG One-off Test start in India?

The series window places it on Thu, 11 Mar 2027 (start time to be confirmed) at Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne, but the board has not yet confirmed the date or start time. King Exchange updates this page as soon as it does.

What is the pitch report for Melbourne Cricket Ground in the AUS vs ENG One-off Test?

We expect a flat, batting-friendly surface that should favour the batters. Firm, true and quick, with short boundaries and a rapid outfield. An under-par total will not hold up on this surface.

Should the captain bat or bowl first in the AUS vs ENG One-off Test?

Whatever the captain picks, both sides should cash in on the runs available. The toss takes place about 30 minutes before the start, when both XIs are named.

Can England win the AUS vs ENG One-off Test?

Yes, though they need early wickets or a match-winning knock. King Exchange gives England a 41% chance, and that climbs if they win a toss that matters or Australia change their best XI.

Why could England upset Australia in the AUS vs ENG One-off Test?

41% to win, which is close to an even chance. No form from this tour yet, so the favourites' edge is untested. Lost time to weather pushes a Test towards a draw, which suits the side under pressure. Mark Wood can win a game single-handed (hits the deck hard).

How should I trade the Australia vs England One-off Test on King Exchange?

By King Exchange numbers, back Australia at 1.69 or longer, or lay England at 2.44 or shorter. A lay wins whenever England fail to win; at 2.44, a ₹100 lay carries ₹144 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Australia vs England One-off Test match kaun jeetega?

King Exchange ke model ke mutabik Australia ka palda bhaari hai: 59%, jabki England ka 41%. Match Thu, 11 Mar 2027 (start time to be confirmed) shuru hoga. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

AUS vs ENG One-off Test ke liye Melbourne ki pitch report kya hai?

Humara andaaza hai ki pitch flat, batting-friendly rahegi, yaani batting ke liye badhiya pitch hai, bada score ban sakta hai. Toss match se lagbhag aadha ghanta pehle hoga.

The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the King Exchange model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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