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CricketNew Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27 · game 3 of 4

Australia vs New Zealand 3rd Test prediction

62%Australia · fair 1.6138%New Zealand · fair 2.63
Start
Start time to be confirmed
Date
Tue, 29 Dec 2026
Venue
Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne
Format
Test match · flat, batting-friendly pitch
By King Exchange Cricket Desk, match analysisUpdated

The case

Who wins AUS vs NZ, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

Australia

  • Rated 62% by King Exchange, which is a fair back price of 1.61.
  • A projected 12-run cushion in the day-one total (291 to 279).
  • Home conditions: Australia know a flat, batting-friendly surface like this better than anyone.
  • Marnus Labuschagne, their likeliest match-winner (built for long innings).

How they could upset it

New Zealand

  • 38% to win, which is roughly one game in 3.
  • One big session can flip the momentum of a series.
  • Lost time to weather pushes a Test towards a draw, which suits the side under pressure.
  • Finn Allen can win a game single-handed (built for long innings).

By the numbers

How many runs will Australia and New Zealand score?

Projected session-by-session runs on day one at Melbourne Cricket Ground.

  • Australia rated 62%, a strong lean. Back them only at 1.61 or longer.
  • A pitch that suits batters, with Australia projected to post the higher total.
  • Australia have home conditions in their favour.
KingExch pick
Australia
Format
Test match
Pitch
flat, batting-friendly
Suits
Batters
Session 1
Session 2
Session 3
Australia New ZealandDay one: AUS 268-314 · NZ 256-302

Deciding factors

Which factors will settle this match?

The pitch first, then the two factors carrying the most weight in this fixture.

  1. Pitch read

    Firm, true and quick, with short boundaries and a rapid outfield. An under-par total will not hold up on this surface. Both teams will lean on the batters, so the deeper attack counts.

    Edge: Even

  2. Batting edge

    Australia project roughly 12 runs higher in the day-one total. Over a Test, a margin like that turns tight games into comfortable ones.

    Edge: Australia

  3. Series pressure

    A win puts Australia in charge with 1 game to go. A defeat hands New Zealand the momentum.

    Edge: Australia

How to play it

How should you back or lay AUS vs NZ on King Exchange?

Fair prices for both teams, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back62% chance

Australia1.61

Accept 1.61 or longer. A ₹100 back at 1.61 pays ₹161 including your stake.

Lay38% chance

New Zealand2.63

Lay only at 2.63 or shorter. At 2.63, a ₹100 lay puts ₹163 at risk to win ₹100.

Three ways to play it · risk rises left to right

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Match odds

    Back Australia

    62% chance1.61

    The headline call. Worth backing only at 1.61 or longer.

  2. ValueBalanced

    Australia day-one total

    Over 276.5

    58% chance1.72

    A 276.5 line leaves roughly 14 runs of headroom against our 291 projection.

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Top team batter

    Marnus Labuschagne (Australia)

    23% chance4.35

    Built for long innings. A long-odds market, so keep the stake small.

Match-winners

Who can swing Australia vs New Zealand?

Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to settle the result. XIs are named at the toss.

Australia

  • Marnus Labuschagne89

    Built for long innings

  • Josh Hazlewood93

    Hits the deck hard

New Zealand

  • Finn Allen87

    Built for long innings

  • Matt Henry94

    Hits the deck hard

What could change

What would change the King Exchange prediction?

Team news and conditions that would move our numbers before the first ball.

  1. If Marnus Labuschagne misses out

    Australia would drop by about five points, turning this into a clear lean.

  2. If the surface looks drier or greener than expected at the toss

    More help for the bowlers would narrow the gap between the two batting orders.

  3. If rain costs a day or more

    A draw becomes the likeliest result, and our win call loses most of its value.

The long read

Australia vs New Zealand match preview

Game 3 of 4 is where New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27 begins to take shape. Australia rate 62% because both their batting and their attack fit these flat, batting-friendly conditions a little better. Australia are on home soil, and the model adds a few percentage points for that. At 38%, New Zealand are far from out of it, but they need their best players to deliver on the same day.

On the toss: Batting or fielding first offers no real edge while the surface stays this good.

“At 38%, New Zealand are far from out of it, but they need their best players to deliver on the same day.”

Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.

Fixture timeline

Fixture timeline: 3rd Test

Rest days, travel and what comes next in New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27.

The 3rd Test is staged at Melbourne Cricket Ground in Melbourne on Tue, 29 Dec 2026, game 3 of 4 in the series.

The 2nd Test comes 10 days before this game at Adelaide Oval in Adelaide, so the squads travel to Melbourne in between. A long gap resets both dressing rooms, so momentum from the last game counts for less than usual.

Next on the calendar: the 4th Test, 10 days after this game at Sydney Cricket Ground in Sydney.

More from Melbourne Cricket Ground on the King Exchange schedule: 1st T20I: Australia vs England (21 Nov), One-off Test: Australia vs England (11 Mar) (2 fixtures in total).

  1. 19 Dec2nd Test: Australia vs New ZealandAdelaide Oval
  2. 29 Dec · this match3rd Test: Australia vs New ZealandMelbourne Cricket Ground
  3. 08 Jan4th Test: Australia vs New ZealandSydney Cricket Ground

Keep reading

More KingExch cricket predictions

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FAQ · 10

AUS vs NZ 3rd Test FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

Need a quick answer? Message King Exchange support on WhatsApp

Who will win the Australia vs New Zealand 3rd Test?

King Exchange expects Australia to win, rating them 62% against 38% for New Zealand, which is a strong lean. The pick blends team ratings, home advantage and how a flat, batting-friendly surface at Melbourne Cricket Ground should play.

What are the fair odds for Australia in the AUS vs NZ 3rd Test?

A 62% rating converts to fair decimal odds of 1.61 for Australia and 2.63 for New Zealand. If the exchange back price is shorter than that, the bet offers no value by our numbers.

What time does the AUS vs NZ 3rd Test start in India?

The series window places it on Tue, 29 Dec 2026 (start time to be confirmed) at Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne, but the board has not yet confirmed the date or start time. King Exchange updates this page as soon as it does.

What is the pitch report for Melbourne Cricket Ground in the AUS vs NZ 3rd Test?

We expect a flat, batting-friendly surface that should favour the batters. Firm, true and quick, with short boundaries and a rapid outfield. An under-par total will not hold up on this surface.

Should the captain bat or bowl first in the AUS vs NZ 3rd Test?

Batting or fielding first offers no real edge while the surface stays this good. The toss takes place about 30 minutes before the start, when both XIs are named.

Can New Zealand win the AUS vs NZ 3rd Test?

Yes, though they need early wickets or a match-winning knock. King Exchange gives New Zealand a 38% chance, and that climbs if they win a toss that matters or Australia change their best XI.

Why could New Zealand upset Australia in the AUS vs NZ 3rd Test?

38% to win, which is roughly one game in 3. One big session can flip the momentum of a series. Lost time to weather pushes a Test towards a draw, which suits the side under pressure. Finn Allen can win a game single-handed (built for long innings).

How should I trade the Australia vs New Zealand 3rd Test on King Exchange?

By King Exchange numbers, back Australia at 1.61 or longer, or lay New Zealand at 2.63 or shorter. A lay wins whenever New Zealand fail to win; at 2.63, a ₹100 lay carries ₹163 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Australia vs New Zealand 3rd Test match kaun jeetega?

King Exchange ke model ke mutabik Australia ka palda bhaari hai: 62%, jabki New Zealand ka 38%. Match Tue, 29 Dec 2026 (start time to be confirmed) shuru hoga. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

AUS vs NZ 3rd Test ke liye Melbourne ki pitch report kya hai?

Humara andaaza hai ki pitch flat, batting-friendly rahegi, yaani batting ke liye badhiya pitch hai, bada score ban sakta hai. Toss match se lagbhag aadha ghanta pehle hoga.

The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the King Exchange model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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