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CricketNew Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27 · game 1 of 4

Australia vs New Zealand 1st Test prediction

62%Australia · fair 1.6138%New Zealand · fair 2.63
Start
Start time to be confirmed
Date
Wed, 09 Dec 2026
Venue
Perth Stadium, Perth
Format
Test match · flat, batting-friendly pitch
By King Exchange Cricket Desk, match analysisUpdated

The case

Who wins AUS vs NZ, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

Australia

  • Rated 62% by King Exchange, which is a fair back price of 1.61.
  • A projected 16-run cushion in the day-one total (294 to 278).
  • Home conditions: Australia know a flat, batting-friendly surface like this better than anyone.
  • David Warner, their likeliest match-winner (built for long innings).

How they could upset it

New Zealand

  • 38% to win, which is roughly one game in 3.
  • No form from this tour yet, so the favourites' edge is untested.
  • Lost time to weather pushes a Test towards a draw, which suits the side under pressure.
  • Finn Allen can win a game single-handed (built for long innings).

By the numbers

How many runs will Australia and New Zealand score?

Projected session-by-session runs on day one at Perth Stadium.

  • Australia rated 62%, a strong lean. Back them only at 1.61 or longer.
  • A pitch that suits batters, with Australia projected to post the higher total.
  • Australia have home conditions in their favour.
KingExch pick
Australia
Format
Test match
Pitch
flat, batting-friendly
Suits
Batters
Session 1
Session 2
Session 3
Australia New ZealandDay one: AUS 270-318 · NZ 255-301

Deciding factors

Which factors will settle this match?

The pitch first, then the two factors carrying the most weight in this fixture.

  1. Pitch read

    Batters can trust the bounce from ball one. Bowlers need sharp plans, because anything overpitched or wide is going to the boundary. Both teams will lean on the batters, so the deeper attack counts.

    Edge: Even

  2. Batting edge

    The projection hands Australia a 16-run cushion, the single biggest reason the model sides with them.

    Edge: Australia

  3. Series opener

    Neither team has tour form to go on yet, which makes a series opener the hardest game to read. A fast start from New Zealand would shift the odds quickly.

    Edge: New Zealand

How to play it

How should you back or lay AUS vs NZ on King Exchange?

Fair prices for both teams, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back62% chance

Australia1.61

Accept 1.61 or longer. A ₹100 back at 1.61 pays ₹161 including your stake.

Lay38% chance

New Zealand2.63

Lay only at 2.63 or shorter. At 2.63, a ₹100 lay puts ₹163 at risk to win ₹100.

Three ways to play it · risk rises left to right

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Match odds

    Back Australia

    62% chance1.61

    Our most likely outcome. Once the back price drops below 1.61, the value is gone.

  2. ValueBalanced

    Australia day-one total

    Over 278.5

    56% chance1.79

    We project about 294, comfortably clear of 278.5, so a slow start can still land it.

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Top team batter

    David Warner (Australia)

    24% chance4.17

    Built for long innings. A long-odds market, so keep the stake small.

Match-winners

Who can swing Australia vs New Zealand?

Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to settle the result. XIs are named at the toss.

Australia

  • David Warner89

    Built for long innings

  • Alex Carey87

    Valuable runs at number seven

New Zealand

  • Finn Allen90

    Built for long innings

  • Trent Boult86

    Hits the deck hard

What could change

What would change the King Exchange prediction?

Team news and conditions that would move our numbers before the first ball.

  1. If David Warner misses out

    Australia would drop by about five points, turning this into a clear lean.

  2. If the surface looks drier or greener than expected at the toss

    More help for the bowlers would narrow the gap between the two batting orders.

  3. If rain costs a day or more

    A draw becomes the likeliest result, and our win call loses most of its value.

The long read

Australia vs New Zealand match preview

The first game of New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27 usually sets the tone for everything that follows, and both camps know it. The King Exchange model leans to Australia at 62%, driven mostly by squad depth and how Perth Stadium has behaved in recent seasons. Australia are on home soil, and the model adds a few percentage points for that. New Zealand's best route to an upset is the first hour. A strong start would make our 38% for them look too low.

On the toss: The toss hardly matters. Both teams will plan for a big score whichever way the coin lands.

“A strong start would make our 38% for them look too low.”

Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.

Fixture timeline

Fixture timeline: 1st Test

Rest days, travel and what comes next in New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27.

The 1st Test is staged at Perth Stadium in Perth on Wed, 09 Dec 2026, game 1 of 4 in the series.

Being the series opener, there is no head-to-head form from this tour yet, so early prices lean on reputation.

Next on the calendar: the 2nd Test, 10 days after this game at Adelaide Oval in Adelaide.

More from Perth Stadium on the King Exchange schedule: 1st ODI: Australia vs England (12 Nov) (1 fixture in total).

  1. 09 Dec · this match1st Test: Australia vs New ZealandPerth Stadium
  2. 19 Dec2nd Test: Australia vs New ZealandAdelaide Oval

Keep reading

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FAQ · 10

AUS vs NZ 1st Test FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

Need a quick answer? Message King Exchange support on WhatsApp

Who will win the Australia vs New Zealand 1st Test?

King Exchange expects Australia to win, rating them 62% against 38% for New Zealand, which is a strong lean. The pick blends team ratings, home advantage and how a flat, batting-friendly surface at Perth Stadium should play.

What are the fair odds for Australia in the AUS vs NZ 1st Test?

A 62% rating converts to fair decimal odds of 1.61 for Australia and 2.63 for New Zealand. If the exchange back price is shorter than that, the bet offers no value by our numbers.

What time does the AUS vs NZ 1st Test start in India?

The series window places it on Wed, 09 Dec 2026 (start time to be confirmed) at Perth Stadium, Perth, but the board has not yet confirmed the date or start time. King Exchange updates this page as soon as it does.

What is the pitch report for Perth Stadium in the AUS vs NZ 1st Test?

We expect a flat, batting-friendly surface that should favour the batters. Batters can trust the bounce from ball one. Bowlers need sharp plans, because anything overpitched or wide is going to the boundary.

Should the captain bat or bowl first in the AUS vs NZ 1st Test?

The toss hardly matters. Both teams will plan for a big score whichever way the coin lands. The toss takes place about 30 minutes before the start, when both XIs are named.

Can New Zealand win the AUS vs NZ 1st Test?

Yes, though they need early wickets or a match-winning knock. King Exchange gives New Zealand a 38% chance, and that climbs if they win a toss that matters or Australia change their best XI.

Why could New Zealand upset Australia in the AUS vs NZ 1st Test?

38% to win, which is roughly one game in 3. No form from this tour yet, so the favourites' edge is untested. Lost time to weather pushes a Test towards a draw, which suits the side under pressure. Finn Allen can win a game single-handed (built for long innings).

How should I trade the Australia vs New Zealand 1st Test on King Exchange?

By King Exchange numbers, back Australia at 1.61 or longer, or lay New Zealand at 2.63 or shorter. A lay wins whenever New Zealand fail to win; at 2.63, a ₹100 lay carries ₹163 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Australia vs New Zealand 1st Test match kaun jeetega?

King Exchange ke model ke mutabik Australia ka palda bhaari hai: 62%, jabki New Zealand ka 38%. Match Wed, 09 Dec 2026 (start time to be confirmed) shuru hoga. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

AUS vs NZ 1st Test ke liye Perth ki pitch report kya hai?

Humara andaaza hai ki pitch flat, batting-friendly rahegi, yaani batting ke liye badhiya pitch hai, bada score ban sakta hai. Toss match se lagbhag aadha ghanta pehle hoga.

The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the King Exchange model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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