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CricketNew Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27 · game 4 of 4

Australia vs New Zealand 4th Test prediction

69%Australia · fair 1.4531%New Zealand · fair 3.23
Start
Start time to be confirmed
Date
Fri, 08 Jan 2027
Venue
Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney
Format
Test match · flat, batting-friendly pitch
By King Exchange Cricket Desk, match analysisUpdated

The case

Who wins AUS vs NZ, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

Australia

  • Rated 69% by King Exchange, which is a fair back price of 1.45.
  • A projected 19-run cushion in the day-one total (294 to 275).
  • Home conditions: Australia know a flat, batting-friendly surface like this better than anyone.
  • Travis Head, their likeliest match-winner (built for long innings).

How they could upset it

New Zealand

  • 31% to win, which is roughly one game in 3.
  • One big session can flip the momentum of a series.
  • Lost time to weather pushes a Test towards a draw, which suits the side under pressure.
  • Glenn Phillips can win a game single-handed (built for long innings).

By the numbers

How many runs will Australia and New Zealand score?

Projected session-by-session runs on day one at Sydney Cricket Ground.

  • Australia rated 69%, a strong lean. Back them only at 1.45 or longer.
  • A pitch that suits batters, with Australia projected to post the higher total.
  • Australia have home conditions in their favour.
KingExch pick
Australia
Format
Test match
Pitch
flat, batting-friendly
Suits
Batters
Session 1
Session 2
Session 3
Australia New ZealandDay one: AUS 271-317 · NZ 251-299

Deciding factors

Which factors will settle this match?

The pitch first, then the two factors carrying the most weight in this fixture.

  1. Pitch read

    Firm, true and quick, with short boundaries and a rapid outfield. An under-par total will not hold up on this surface. Both teams will lean on the batters, so the deeper attack counts.

    Edge: Even

  2. Batting edge

    Australia project roughly 19 runs higher in the day-one total. Over a Test, a margin like that turns tight games into comfortable ones.

    Edge: Australia

  3. Series pressure

    It is the final game, so Australia cannot coast and New Zealand have nothing left to protect.

    Edge: Australia

How to play it

How should you back or lay AUS vs NZ on King Exchange?

Fair prices for both teams, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back69% chance

Australia1.45

Accept 1.45 or longer. A ₹100 back at 1.45 pays ₹145 including your stake.

Lay31% chance

New Zealand3.23

Lay only at 3.23 or shorter. At 3.23, a ₹100 lay puts ₹223 at risk to win ₹100.

Three ways to play it · risk rises left to right

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Match odds

    Back Australia

    69% chance1.45

    The headline call. Worth backing only at 1.45 or longer.

  2. ValueBalanced

    Australia day-one total

    Over 279.5

    57% chance1.75

    A 279.5 line leaves roughly 14 runs of headroom against our 294 projection.

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Top team batter

    Travis Head (Australia)

    19% chance5.26

    Built for long innings. A long-odds market, so keep the stake small.

Match-winners

Who can swing Australia vs New Zealand?

Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to settle the result. XIs are named at the toss.

Australia

  • Travis Head87

    Built for long innings

  • Mitchell Starc85

    Hits the deck hard

New Zealand

  • Glenn Phillips96

    Built for long innings

  • Matt Henry86

    Hits the deck hard

What could change

What would change the King Exchange prediction?

Team news and conditions that would move our numbers before the first ball.

  1. If Travis Head misses out

    Australia would drop by about five points, turning this into a strong lean.

  2. If the surface looks drier or greener than expected at the toss

    More help for the bowlers would narrow the gap between the two batting orders.

  3. If rain costs a day or more

    A draw becomes the likeliest result, and our win call loses most of its value.

The long read

Australia vs New Zealand match preview

New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27 ends here: expect full-strength XIs with nobody rested for later. Australia rate 69% because both their batting and their attack fit these flat, batting-friendly conditions a little better. Australia are on home soil, and the model adds a few percentage points for that. At 31%, New Zealand are far from out of it, but they need their best players to deliver on the same day.

On the toss: Whatever the captain picks, both sides should cash in on the runs available.

“At 31%, New Zealand are far from out of it, but they need their best players to deliver on the same day.”

Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.

Fixture timeline

Fixture timeline: 4th Test

Rest days, travel and what comes next in New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27.

The 4th Test is staged at Sydney Cricket Ground in Sydney on Fri, 08 Jan 2027, game 4 of 4 in the series.

The 3rd Test comes 10 days before this game at Melbourne Cricket Ground in Melbourne, so the squads travel to Sydney in between. A long gap resets both dressing rooms, so momentum from the last game counts for less than usual.

Nothing follows in this series, so both teams should name their strongest available XI.

More from Sydney Cricket Ground on the King Exchange schedule: 4th T20I: Australia vs England (29 Nov) (1 fixture in total).

  1. 29 Dec3rd Test: Australia vs New ZealandMelbourne Cricket Ground
  2. 08 Jan · this match4th Test: Australia vs New ZealandSydney Cricket Ground

Keep reading

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FAQ · 10

AUS vs NZ 4th Test FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

Need a quick answer? Message King Exchange support on WhatsApp

Who will win the Australia vs New Zealand 4th Test?

King Exchange expects Australia to win, rating them 69% against 31% for New Zealand, which is a strong lean. The pick blends team ratings, home advantage and how a flat, batting-friendly surface at Sydney Cricket Ground should play.

What are the fair odds for Australia in the AUS vs NZ 4th Test?

A 69% rating converts to fair decimal odds of 1.45 for Australia and 3.23 for New Zealand. If the exchange back price is shorter than that, the bet offers no value by our numbers.

What time does the AUS vs NZ 4th Test start in India?

The series window places it on Fri, 08 Jan 2027 (start time to be confirmed) at Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney, but the board has not yet confirmed the date or start time. King Exchange updates this page as soon as it does.

What is the pitch report for Sydney Cricket Ground in the AUS vs NZ 4th Test?

We expect a flat, batting-friendly surface that should favour the batters. Firm, true and quick, with short boundaries and a rapid outfield. An under-par total will not hold up on this surface.

Should the captain bat or bowl first in the AUS vs NZ 4th Test?

Whatever the captain picks, both sides should cash in on the runs available. The toss takes place about 30 minutes before the start, when both XIs are named.

Can New Zealand win the AUS vs NZ 4th Test?

Yes, though they need early wickets or a match-winning knock. King Exchange gives New Zealand a 31% chance, and that climbs if they win a toss that matters or Australia change their best XI.

Why could New Zealand upset Australia in the AUS vs NZ 4th Test?

31% to win, which is roughly one game in 3. One big session can flip the momentum of a series. Lost time to weather pushes a Test towards a draw, which suits the side under pressure. Glenn Phillips can win a game single-handed (built for long innings).

How should I trade the Australia vs New Zealand 4th Test on King Exchange?

By King Exchange numbers, back Australia at 1.45 or longer, or lay New Zealand at 3.23 or shorter. A lay wins whenever New Zealand fail to win; at 3.23, a ₹100 lay carries ₹223 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Australia vs New Zealand 4th Test match kaun jeetega?

King Exchange ke model ke mutabik Australia ka palda bhaari hai: 69%, jabki New Zealand ka 31%. Match Fri, 08 Jan 2027 (start time to be confirmed) shuru hoga. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

AUS vs NZ 4th Test ke liye Sydney ki pitch report kya hai?

Humara andaaza hai ki pitch flat, batting-friendly rahegi, yaani batting ke liye badhiya pitch hai, bada score ban sakta hai. Toss match se lagbhag aadha ghanta pehle hoga.

The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the King Exchange model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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