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CricketAustralia tour of India, 2027 · game 1 of 5

India vs Australia 1st Test prediction

59%India · fair 1.6941%Australia · fair 2.44
Start
Start time to be confirmed
Date
Thu, 21 Jan 2027
Venue
Vidarbha Cricket Association Stadium, Nagpur
Format
Test match · balanced, dry pitch
By King Exchange Cricket Desk, match analysisUpdated

The case

Who wins IND vs AUS, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

India

  • Rated 59% by King Exchange, which is a fair back price of 1.69.
  • A projected 9-run cushion in the day-one total (279 to 270).
  • Home conditions: India know a balanced, dry surface like this better than anyone.
  • Virat Kohli, their likeliest match-winner (built for long innings).

How they could upset it

Australia

  • 41% to win, which is close to an even chance.
  • No form from this tour yet, so the favourites' edge is untested.
  • Lost time to weather pushes a Test towards a draw, which suits the side under pressure.
  • Mitchell Marsh can win a game single-handed (gives the side a fifth bowler).

By the numbers

How many runs will India and Australia score?

Projected session-by-session runs on day one at Vidarbha Cricket Association Stadium.

  • India rated 59%, a clear lean. Back them only at 1.69 or longer.
  • A balanced pitch, with India projected to post the higher total.
  • India have home conditions in their favour.
KingExch pick
India
Format
Test match
Pitch
balanced, dry
Suits
Balanced
Session 1
Session 2
Session 3
India AustraliaDay one: IND 255-303 · AUS 247-293

Deciding factors

Which factors will settle this match?

The pitch first, then the two factors carrying the most weight in this fixture.

  1. Pitch read

    Expect an even contest, with session scores around the format average and the sharper side on the day taking it. Neither attack gets a special edge from it.

    Edge: Even

  2. Toss call

    Both options are sensible, so each captain will likely stick with their usual preference.

    Edge: Even

  3. Even batting

    The two batting orders rate almost the same (9 runs apart), which leaves the bowling and the toss to settle it.

    Edge: Even

How to play it

How should you back or lay IND vs AUS on King Exchange?

Fair prices for both teams, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back59% chance

India1.69

Accept 1.69 or longer. A ₹100 back at 1.69 pays ₹169 including your stake.

Lay41% chance

Australia2.44

Lay only at 2.44 or shorter. At 2.44, a ₹100 lay puts ₹144 at risk to win ₹100.

Three ways to play it · risk rises left to right

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Match odds

    Back India

    59% chance1.69

    Our most likely outcome. Once the back price drops below 1.69, the value is gone.

  2. ValueBalanced

    India day-one total

    Over 263.5

    58% chance1.72

    We project about 279, comfortably clear of 263.5, so a slow start can still land it.

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Top team batter

    Virat Kohli (India)

    20% chance5.00

    Built for long innings. A long-odds market, so keep the stake small.

Match-winners

Who can swing India vs Australia?

Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to settle the result. XIs are named at the toss.

India

  • Virat Kohli85

    Built for long innings

  • Hardik Pandya89

    Gives the side a fifth bowler

Australia

  • Mitchell Marsh93

    Gives the side a fifth bowler

  • Alex Carey95

    Valuable runs at number seven

What could change

What would change the King Exchange prediction?

Team news and conditions that would move our numbers before the first ball.

  1. If Virat Kohli misses out

    India would drop by about five points, turning this into a slight lean.

  2. If the surface looks drier or greener than expected at the toss

    More help for the bowlers would narrow the gap between the two batting orders.

  3. If rain costs a day or more

    A draw becomes the likeliest result, and our win call loses most of its value.

The long read

India vs Australia match preview

The first game of Australia tour of India, 2027 usually sets the tone for everything that follows, and both camps know it. King Exchange rates India as the better-equipped side for a balanced, dry Test surface, at 59%. India are on home soil, and the model adds a few percentage points for that. Australia's best route to an upset is the first hour. A strong start would make our 41% for them look too low.

On the toss: Both options are sensible, so each captain will likely stick with their usual preference.

“A strong start would make our 41% for them look too low.”

Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.

Fixture timeline

Fixture timeline: 1st Test

Rest days, travel and what comes next in Australia tour of India, 2027.

The 1st Test is staged at Vidarbha Cricket Association Stadium in Nagpur on Thu, 21 Jan 2027, game 1 of 5 in the series.

Being the series opener, there is no head-to-head form from this tour yet, so early prices lean on reputation.

Next on the calendar: the 2nd Test, 10 days after this game at MA Chidambaram Stadium in Chennai.

  1. 21 Jan · this match1st Test: India vs AustraliaVidarbha Cricket Association Stadium
  2. 31 Jan2nd Test: India vs AustraliaMA Chidambaram Stadium

Keep reading

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FAQ · 10

IND vs AUS 1st Test FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

Need a quick answer? Message King Exchange support on WhatsApp

Who will win the India vs Australia 1st Test?

King Exchange expects India to win, rating them 59% against 41% for Australia, which is a clear lean. The pick blends team ratings, home advantage and how a balanced, dry surface at Vidarbha Cricket Association Stadium should play.

What are the fair odds for India in the IND vs AUS 1st Test?

A 59% rating converts to fair decimal odds of 1.69 for India and 2.44 for Australia. If the exchange back price is shorter than that, the bet offers no value by our numbers.

What time does the IND vs AUS 1st Test start in India?

The series window places it on Thu, 21 Jan 2027 (start time to be confirmed) at Vidarbha Cricket Association Stadium, Nagpur, but the board has not yet confirmed the date or start time. King Exchange updates this page as soon as it does.

What is the pitch report for Vidarbha Cricket Association Stadium in the IND vs AUS 1st Test?

We expect a balanced, dry surface that should favour neither side. Expect an even contest, with session scores around the format average and the sharper side on the day taking it.

Should the captain bat or bowl first in the IND vs AUS 1st Test?

Both options are sensible, so each captain will likely stick with their usual preference. The toss takes place about 30 minutes before the start, when both XIs are named.

Can Australia win the IND vs AUS 1st Test?

Yes, though they need early wickets or a match-winning knock. King Exchange gives Australia a 41% chance, and that climbs if they win a toss that matters or India change their best XI.

Why could Australia upset India in the IND vs AUS 1st Test?

41% to win, which is close to an even chance. No form from this tour yet, so the favourites' edge is untested. Lost time to weather pushes a Test towards a draw, which suits the side under pressure. Mitchell Marsh can win a game single-handed (gives the side a fifth bowler).

How should I trade the India vs Australia 1st Test on King Exchange?

By King Exchange numbers, back India at 1.69 or longer, or lay Australia at 2.44 or shorter. A lay wins whenever Australia fail to win; at 2.44, a ₹100 lay carries ₹144 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

India vs Australia 1st Test match kaun jeetega?

King Exchange ke model ke mutabik India ka palda bhaari hai: 59%, jabki Australia ka 41%. Match Thu, 21 Jan 2027 (start time to be confirmed) shuru hoga. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

IND vs AUS 1st Test ke liye Nagpur ki pitch report kya hai?

Humara andaaza hai ki pitch balanced, dry rahegi, yaani bat aur ball dono ko barabar madad milegi. Toss match se lagbhag aadha ghanta pehle hoga.

The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the King Exchange model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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