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CricketAustralia tour of India, 2027 · game 3 of 5

India vs Australia 3rd Test prediction

51%India · fair 1.9649%Australia · fair 2.04
Start
Start time to be confirmed
Date
Thu, 11 Feb 2027
Venue
Barsapara Cricket Stadium, Guwahati
Format
Test match · balanced, dry pitch
By King Exchange Cricket Desk, match analysisUpdated

The case

Who wins IND vs AUS, and why?

The argument for the favourite, and the route to an upset.

Why they should win

India

  • Rated 51% by King Exchange, which is a fair back price of 1.96.
  • A projected 10-run cushion in the day-one total (277 to 267).
  • Home conditions: India know a balanced, dry surface like this better than anyone.
  • Shreyas Iyer, their likeliest match-winner (built for long innings).

How they could upset it

Australia

  • 49% to win, which is close to an even chance.
  • One big session can flip the momentum of a series.
  • Lost time to weather pushes a Test towards a draw, which suits the side under pressure.
  • Josh Inglis can win a game single-handed (valuable runs at number seven).

By the numbers

How many runs will India and Australia score?

Projected session-by-session runs on day one at Barsapara Cricket Stadium.

  • India rated 51%, a coin flip. Back them only at 1.96 or longer.
  • A balanced pitch, with India projected to post the higher total.
  • India have home conditions in their favour.
KingExch pick
India
Format
Test match
Pitch
balanced, dry
Suits
Balanced
Session 1
Session 2
Session 3
India AustraliaDay one: IND 254-300 · AUS 244-290

Deciding factors

Which factors will settle this match?

The pitch first, then the two factors carrying the most weight in this fixture.

  1. Pitch read

    Nothing unusual in the pitch. Bowlers who hold a tight length will be rewarded, as will batters who stay patient early. Neither attack gets a special edge from it.

    Edge: Even

  2. Series pressure

    A win puts India in charge with 2 games to go. A defeat hands Australia the momentum.

    Edge: India

  3. Toss call

    Neither choice at the toss looks decisive on this pitch.

    Edge: Even

How to play it

How should you back or lay IND vs AUS on King Exchange?

Fair prices for both teams, then three selections from the safest to the boldest.

Back51% chance

India1.96

Accept 1.96 or longer. A ₹100 back at 1.96 pays ₹196 including your stake.

Lay49% chance

Australia2.04

Lay only at 2.04 or shorter. At 2.04, a ₹100 lay puts ₹104 at risk to win ₹100.

Three ways to play it · risk rises left to right

  1. AnchorLowest risk

    Match odds

    Back India

    51% chance1.96

    The headline call. Worth backing only at 1.96 or longer.

  2. ValueBalanced

    India day-one total

    Over 262.5

    62% chance1.61

    A 262.5 line leaves roughly 14 runs of headroom against our 277 projection.

  3. Long shotHighest reward

    Top team batter

    Shreyas Iyer (India)

    23% chance4.35

    Built for long innings. A long-odds market, so keep the stake small.

Match-winners

Who can swing India vs Australia?

Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to settle the result. XIs are named at the toss.

India

  • Shreyas Iyer82

    Built for long innings

  • Jasprit Bumrah94

    Hits the deck hard

Australia

  • Josh Inglis91

    Valuable runs at number seven

  • Mitchell Starc95

    Hits the deck hard

What could change

What would change the King Exchange prediction?

Team news and conditions that would move our numbers before the first ball.

  1. If Shreyas Iyer misses out

    India would drop by about five points, turning this into a coin flip.

  2. If the surface looks drier or greener than expected at the toss

    More help for the bowlers would narrow the gap between the two batting orders.

  3. If rain costs a day or more

    A draw becomes the likeliest result, and our win call loses most of its value.

The long read

India vs Australia match preview

Game 3 of 5 is where Australia tour of India, 2027 begins to take shape. India rate 51% because both their batting and their attack fit these balanced, dry conditions a little better. India are on home soil, and the model adds a few percentage points for that. Australia's best route to an upset is the first hour. A strong start would make our 49% for them look too low.

On the toss: Neither choice at the toss looks decisive on this pitch.

“A strong start would make our 49% for them look too low.”

Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.

Fixture timeline

Fixture timeline: 3rd Test

Rest days, travel and what comes next in Australia tour of India, 2027.

The 3rd Test is staged at Barsapara Cricket Stadium in Guwahati on Thu, 11 Feb 2027, game 3 of 5 in the series.

The 2nd Test comes 11 days before this game at MA Chidambaram Stadium in Chennai, so the squads travel to Guwahati in between. A long gap resets both dressing rooms, so momentum from the last game counts for less than usual.

Next on the calendar: the 4th Test, 10 days after this game at JSCA International Stadium Complex in Ranchi.

More from Barsapara Cricket Stadium on the King Exchange schedule: 2nd ODI: India vs West Indies (30 Sep) (1 fixture in total).

  1. 31 Jan2nd Test: India vs AustraliaMA Chidambaram Stadium
  2. 11 Feb · this match3rd Test: India vs AustraliaBarsapara Cricket Stadium
  3. 21 Feb4th Test: India vs AustraliaJSCA International Stadium Complex

Keep reading

More KingExch cricket predictions

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FAQ · 10

IND vs AUS 3rd Test FAQs

Quick, straight answers to what cricket, football and tennis fans ask us most.

Need a quick answer? Message King Exchange support on WhatsApp

Who will win the India vs Australia 3rd Test?

King Exchange expects India to win, rating them 51% against 49% for Australia, which is a coin flip. The pick blends team ratings, home advantage and how a balanced, dry surface at Barsapara Cricket Stadium should play.

What are the fair odds for India in the IND vs AUS 3rd Test?

A 51% rating converts to fair decimal odds of 1.96 for India and 2.04 for Australia. If the exchange back price is shorter than that, the bet offers no value by our numbers.

What time does the IND vs AUS 3rd Test start in India?

The series window places it on Thu, 11 Feb 2027 (start time to be confirmed) at Barsapara Cricket Stadium, Guwahati, but the board has not yet confirmed the date or start time. King Exchange updates this page as soon as it does.

What is the pitch report for Barsapara Cricket Stadium in the IND vs AUS 3rd Test?

We expect a balanced, dry surface that should favour neither side. Nothing unusual in the pitch. Bowlers who hold a tight length will be rewarded, as will batters who stay patient early.

Should the captain bat or bowl first in the IND vs AUS 3rd Test?

Neither choice at the toss looks decisive on this pitch. The toss takes place about 30 minutes before the start, when both XIs are named.

Can Australia win the IND vs AUS 3rd Test?

Yes, though they need early wickets or a match-winning knock. King Exchange gives Australia a 49% chance, and that climbs if they win a toss that matters or India change their best XI.

Why could Australia upset India in the IND vs AUS 3rd Test?

49% to win, which is close to an even chance. One big session can flip the momentum of a series. Lost time to weather pushes a Test towards a draw, which suits the side under pressure. Josh Inglis can win a game single-handed (valuable runs at number seven).

How should I trade the India vs Australia 3rd Test on King Exchange?

By King Exchange numbers, back India at 1.96 or longer, or lay Australia at 2.04 or shorter. A lay wins whenever Australia fail to win; at 2.04, a ₹100 lay carries ₹104 of liability. Prices move before and during play, so check the live back and lay odds first.

India vs Australia 3rd Test match kaun jeetega?

King Exchange ke model ke mutabik India ka palda bhaari hai: 51%, jabki Australia ka 49%. Match Thu, 11 Feb 2027 (start time to be confirmed) shuru hoga. Yeh ek anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

IND vs AUS 3rd Test ke liye Guwahati ki pitch report kya hai?

Humara andaaza hai ki pitch balanced, dry rahegi, yaani bat aur ball dono ko barabar madad milegi. Toss match se lagbhag aadha ghanta pehle hoga.

The win chances, projected scores and picks here come from the King Exchange model, which weighs team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, never guarantees, and every bet settles at the live exchange price you accept. For adults 18+ only. Fix a budget before you bet and gamble responsibly.

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